相关论文: Continuous-time GARCH processes

Identifying the number of lags to include in an autoregressive model remains an open research problem due to the computational burden of treating it as a hyperparameter, especially in complex models. This study explores model-agnostic…

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

Uniformly valid inference for cointegrated vector autoregressive processes has so far proven difficult due to certain discontinuities arising in the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator. We extend asymptotic results from…

In this paper, we discuss integer-valued autoregressive time series (INAR), Hawkes point processes, and their interrelationship. Besides presenting structural analogies, we derive a convergence theorem. More specifically, we generalize the…

Models characterized by autoregressive structure and random coefficients are powerful tools for the analysis of high-frequency, high-dimensional and volatile time series. The available literature on such models is broad, but also sectorial,…

We study a class of graphs that represent local independence structures in stochastic processes allowing for correlated error processes. Several graphs may encode the same local independencies and we characterize such equivalence classes of…

We discuss existence and uniqueness of stationary and ergodic nonlinear autoregressive processes when exogenous regressors are incorporated in the dynamic. To this end, we consider the convergence of the backward iterations of dependent…

Riesz space (non-pointwise) generalizations for iterative processes are given for the concepts of recurrence, first recurrence and conditional ergodicity. Riesz space conditional versions of the Poincar\'{e} Recurrence Theorem and the Kac…

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…

A causal vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is introduced for weakly stationary multivariate processes, combining a recursive directed graphical model for the contemporaneous components and a vector autoregressive model longitudinally.…

We prove existence and uniqueness of a stationary distribution and absolute regularity for nonlinear GARCH and INGARCH models of order (p,q). In contrast to previous work we impose, besides a geometric drift condition, only a…

The covariance of two random variables measures the average joint deviations from their respective means. We generalise this well-known measure by replacing the means with other statistical functionals such as quantiles, expectiles, or…

We consider the problem of option pricing and hedging when stock returns are correlated in time. Within a quadratic-risk minimisation scheme, we obtain a general formula, valid for weakly correlated non-Gaussian processes. We show that for…

This paper establishes Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov type equations for time-changed Gaussian processes. Examples include those equations for a time-changed fractional Brownian motion with time-dependent Hurst parameter and for a time-changed…

In the study of complex physical and biological systems represented by multivariate stochastic processes, an issue of great relevance is the description of the system dynamics spanning multiple temporal scales. While methods to assess the…

This paper presents a novel extension of multi-task Gaussian Cox processes for modeling multiple heterogeneous correlated tasks jointly, e.g., classification and regression, via multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP). A MOGP prior over the…

We establish a characterization of coagulation-fragmentation processes, such that the induced birth and death processes depicting the total number of groups at time $t\ge 0$ are time homogeneous. Based on this, we provide a characterization…

In this paper, we establish the partial correlation graph for multivariate continuous-time stochastic processes, assuming only that the underlying process is stationary and mean-square continuous with expectation zero and spectral density…

A statistical inference for random coefficient first-order autoregressive model $[RCAR(1)]$ was investigated by P.M. ROBINSON (1978) in which the coefficients varying over individuals. In this paper we attempt to generalize this result to…