相关论文: Bayesian analysis for reversible Markov chains

The recurrence features of persistent random walks built from variable length Markov chains are investigated. We observe that these stochastic processes can be seen as L{\'e}vy walks for which the persistence times depend on some internal…

Directed acyclic graphs are the basic representation of the structure underlying Bayesian networks, which represent multivariate probability distributions. In many practical applications, such as the reverse engineering of gene regulatory…

Conditions on the generator of a Markov process to control the fluctuations of its bridges are found. In particular, continuous time random walks on graphs and gradient diffusions are considered. Under these conditions, a concentration of…

We propose a general nonparametric Bayesian framework for binary regression, which is built from modeling for the joint response-covariate distribution. The observed binary responses are assumed to arise from underlying continuous random…

We give an example of a transient reversible Markov chain that almost surely has only a finite number of cutpoints. We explain how this is relevant to a conjecture of Diaconis and Freedman and a question of Kaimanovich. We also answer…

Suppose X and Y are two independent irreducible Markov chains on n states. We consider the intersection time, which is the first time their trajectories intersect. We show for reversible and lazy chains that the total variation mixing time…

We present a new approach to Bayesian inference that entirely avoids Markov chain simulation, by constructing a map that pushes forward the prior measure to the posterior measure. Existence and uniqueness of a suitable measure-preserving…

This paper introduces Dirichlet process mixtures of block $g$ priors for model selection and prediction in linear models. These priors are extensions of traditional mixtures of $g$ priors that allow for differential shrinkage for various…

This paper develops a Bayesian computational platform at the interface between posterior sampling and optimization in models whose marginal likelihoods are difficult to evaluate. Inspired by adversarial optimization, namely Generative…

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

We show that boundary theory for transient Markov chains, as initiated by Doob, can be used to prove de Finetti's classical representation result for exchangeable random sequences. We also include the relevant parts of the theory, with full…

In this paper, we first develop a new family of conjugate prior distributions for the cell parameters of discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a set P of moral directed acyclic graphs with skeleton a given decomposable graph G.…

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at…

Using Bayes's theorem, we derive a unit-wise recurrence as well as a backward recursion similar to the forward-backward algorithm. The resulting Bayesian recurrent units can be integrated as recurrent neural networks within deep learning…

Approximating the stationary probability of a state in a Markov chain through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is, in general, inefficient. Standard random walk approaches require $\tilde{O}(\tau/\pi(v))$ operations to approximate the…

We proposed in \cite{bl2} a new approach to prove the metastable behavior of reversible dynamics based on potential theory and local ergodicity. In this article we extend this theory to nonreversible dynamics based on the Dirichlet…

We introduce the BREASE framework for the Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials with a binary treatment and a binary outcome. Approaching the problem from a causal inference perspective, we propose parameterizing the likelihood…

We introduce $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation, a novel type of approximate probabilistic bisimulation for continuous-time Markov chains. In contrast to related notions, $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation allows the use of different…

A challenge for practitioners of Bayesian inference is specifying a model that incorporates multiple relevant, heterogeneous data sets. It may be easier to instead specify distinct submodels for each source of data, then join the submodels…

We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…