相关论文: Epidemic branching processes with and without vacc…

We study vaccine control for disease spread on an adaptive network modeling disease avoidance behavior. Control is implemented by adding Poisson distributed vaccination of susceptibles. We show that vaccine control is much more effective in…

We study the interaction between epidemic spreading and a vaccination process. We assume that, similar to the disease spreading, also the vaccination process occurs through direct contact, i.e., it follows the standard…

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new…

Branching processes are widely used to model the viral epidemic evolution. For more adequate investigation of viral epidemic modelling, we suggest to apply branching processes with transport of particles usually called branching random…

We consider the genealogical tree of a stationary continuous state branching process with immigration. For a sub-critical stable branching mechanism, we consider the genealogical tree of the extant population at some fixed time and prove…

We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…

The spreading of infectious diseases with and without immunization of individuals can be modeled by stochastic processes that exhibit a transition between an active phase of epidemic spreading and an absorbing phase, where the disease dies…

A population genetics model based on a multitype branching process, or equivalently a Galton-Watson branching process for multiple alleles, is pre- sented. The diffusion limit forward Kolmogorov equation is derived for the case of neutral…

We present two iterative methods for computing the global and partial extinction probability vectors for Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. The probabilistic interpretation of these methods involves truncated…

Major advances in public health have resulted from disease prevention. However, prevention of a new infectious disease by vaccination or pharmaceuticals is made difficult by the slow process of vaccine and drug development. We propose an…

The Markovian approach, which assumes exponentially distributed interinfection times, is dominant in epidemic modeling. However, this assumption is unrealistic as an individual's infectiousness depends on its viral load and varies over…

Seasonal influenza is a significant public health concern in the United States and globally. While influenza vaccines are the single most effective intervention to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality, there is considerable debate…

Vaccination is essential for the management of infectious diseases, many of which continue to pose devastating public health and economic challenges across the world. However, many vaccines are imperfect having only a partial protective…

In the face of serious infectious diseases, governments endeavour to implement containment measures such as public vaccination at a macroscopic level. Meanwhile, individuals tend to protect themselves by avoiding contacts with infections at…

Vaccination is an effective way to prevent and control the occurrence and epidemic of infectious diseases. However, many factors influence whether the residents decide to get vaccinated or not, such as the efficacy and side effects while…

1 Sharp prediction of extinction times is needed in biodiversity monitoring and conservation management. 2 The Galton-Watson process is a classical stochastic model for describing population dynamics. Its evolution is like the matrix…

The outbreak of mutant strains and vaccination behaviors have been the focus of recent epidemiological research, but most existing epidemic models failed to simultaneously capture viral mutation and consider the complexity and behavioral…

We consider the extinction events of Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. In particular, we construct truncated and augmented Galton-Watson processes with finite but increasing sets of types. A pathwise approach is…

We show that the basic reproduction number of an SIS patch model with standard incidence is either strictly decreasing and strictly convex with respect to the diffusion coefficient of infected subpopulation if the patch reproduction numbers…

Optimization of vaccine allocations among different segments of a heterogeneous population is important for enhancing the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in reducing the burden of epidemics. Intuitively, it would seem that…