相关论文: Expertises : proc\'{e}dures statistiques d'aide \`…

Bayes factors are characterized by both the powerful mathematical framework of Bayesian statistics and the useful interpretation as evidence quantification. Former requires a parameter distribution that changes by seeing the data, latter…

We introduce a new discrepancy score between two distributions that gives an indication on their similarity. While much research has been done to determine if two samples come from exactly the same distribution, much less research…

Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…

Entropy is a measure of heterogeneity widely used in applied sciences, often when data are collected over space. Recently, a number of approaches has been proposed to include spatial information in entropy. The aim of entropy is to…

Estimating statistical models within sensor networks requires distributed algorithms, in which both data and computation are distributed across the nodes of the network. We propose a general approach for distributed learning based on…

Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…

We consider the problem of providing valid inference for a selected parameter in a sparse regression setting. It is well known that classical regression tools can be unreliable in this context due to the bias generated in the selection…

Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for…

A scientific reasoning system makes decisions using objective evidence in the form of independent experimental trials, propositional axioms, and constraints on the probabilities of events. As a first step towards this goal, we propose a…

This paper studies a new and more general axiomatization than one presented previously for preference on likelihood gambles. Likelihood gambles describe actions in a situation where a decision maker knows multiple probabilistic models and a…

For many important problems the quantity of interest is an unknown function of the parameters, which is a random vector with known statistics. Since the dependence of the output on this random vector is unknown, the challenge is to identify…

The superstatistics approach recently introduced by Beck [C. Beck and E.G.D. Cohen, Physica A 322, 267 (2003)] is a formalism that aims to deal in a unifying way with a large variety of complex nonequilibrium systems, for which…

We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…

In this paper, we derive a novel probabilistic model of boosting as a Product of Experts. We re-derive the boosting algorithm as a greedy incremental model selection procedure which ensures that addition of new experts to the ensemble does…

Stochastic independence has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory. Bayesian decision…

Algorithms are now routinely used to make consequential decisions that affect human lives. Examples include college admissions, medical interventions or law enforcement. While algorithms empower us to harness all information hidden in vast…

Analysis of experimental data must sometimes deal with abrupt changes in the distribution of measured values. Setting upper limits on signals usually involves a veto procedure that excludes data not described by an assumed statistical…

We study how we can adapt a predictor to a non-stationary environment with advises from multiple experts. We study the problem under complete feedback when the best expert changes over time from a decision theoretic point of view. Proposed…

Detection rules have traditionally been designed for rational agents that minimize the Bayes risk (average decision cost). With the advent of crowd-sensing systems, there is a need to redesign binary hypothesis testing rules for behavioral…

Subclassification estimators are one of the methods used to estimate causal effects of interest using the propensity score. This method is more stable compared to other weighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting estimators, in…