相关论文: Expertises : proc\'{e}dures statistiques d'aide \`…

Many methods are available for assessing the importance of omitted variables in linear regression. These methods typically make different, non-falsifiable assumptions. Hence the data alone cannot tell us which method is most appropriate.…

When eliciting probability models from experts, knowledge engineers may compare the results of the model with expert judgment on test scenarios, then adjust model parameters to bring the behavior of the model more in line with the expert's…

Econometricians have usefully separated study of estimation into identification and statistical components. Identification analysis, which assumes knowledge of the probability distribution generating observable data, places an upper bound…

We examine a stochastic formulation for data-driven optimization wherein the decision-maker is not privy to the true distribution, but has knowledge that it lies in some hypothesis set and possesses a historical data set, from which…

Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

There has long been debate about the relative merits of decision theoretic methods and heuristic rule-based approaches for reasoning under uncertainty. We report an experimental comparison of the performance of the two approaches to…

This paper introduces a statistical test inferring whether a variable allows separating two classes by means of a single critical value. Its test statistic is the prediction error of a nonparametric threshold classifier. While this approach…

Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…

Hypothesis testing and other statistical inference procedures are most efficient when a reliable low-dimensional parametric family can be specified. We propose a method that learns such a family when one exists but its form is not known a…

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

We consider the problem of deciding on sampling strategy, in particular sampling design. We propose a risk measure, whose minimizing value guides the choice. The method makes use of a superpopulation model and takes into account uncertainty…

We introduce a new concept of approximation applicable to decision problems and functions, inspired by Bayesian probability. From the perspective of a Bayesian reasoner with limited computational resources, the answer to a problem that…

We show on theoretical grounds that, even in the presence of noise, probabilistic measurement strategies (which have a certain probability of failure or abstention) can provide, upon a heralded successful outcome, estimates with a precision…

A policy maker faces a sequence of unknown outcomes. At each stage two (self-proclaimed) experts provide probabilistic forecasts on the outcome in the next stage. A comparison test is a protocol for the policy maker to (eventually) decide…

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…