相关论文: Tail behaviour of multiple random integrals and U-…

For multivariate distributions in the domain of attraction of a max-stable distribution, the tail copula and the stable tail dependence function are equivalent ways to capture the dependence in the upper tail. The empirical versions of…

We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The assessment of risks should be carried out in accordance with the regulatory authority's requirement at high quantiles. In general, the underlying distribution function is…

Multivariate regular variation plays a role assessing tail risk in diverse applications such as finance, telecommunications, insurance and environmental science. The classical theory, being based on an asymptotic model, sometimes leads to…

Our work aims to study the tail behaviour of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} X_{i} \prod_{j=1}^{i}Y_{j}$, where $(X_{i}, Y_{i})$ are independent and identically distributed, with common joint distribution bivariate Sarmanov.…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

The authors announce a general tail estimate, called a decoupling inequality, for a symmetrized sum of non-linear $k$-correlations of $n>k$ independent random variables.

Heavy-tailed phenomena appear across diverse domains --from wealth and firm sizes in economics to network traffic, biological systems, and physical processes-- characterized by the disproportionate influence of extreme values. These…

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

We present a new Monte Carlo methodology for the accurate estimation of the distribution of the sum of dependent log-normal random variables. The methodology delivers statistically unbiased estimators for three distributional quantities of…

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…

In extreme value inference it is a fundamental problem how the target value is required to be extreme by the extreme value theory. In iid settings this study both theoretically and numerically compares tail estimators, which are based on…

Here we suppose that the observed random variable has cumulative distribution function $F$ with regularly varying tail, i.e. $1-F \in RV_{-\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$. Using the results about exponential order statistics we investigate…

It was shown that when one disposes of a parametric information of the truncation distribution, the semiparametric estimator of the distribution function for truncated data (Wang, 1989) is more efficient than the nonparametric one. On the…

This paper considers estimation and inference about tail features when the observations beyond some threshold are censored. We first show that ignoring such tail censoring could lead to substantial bias and size distortion, even if the…

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…