相关论文: Towards Reconciliation between Bayesian and Freque…

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Latent variable models are popularly used to measure latent factors (e.g., abilities and personalities) from large-scale assessment data. Beyond understanding these latent factors, the covariate effect on responses controlling for latent…

(l) I have enough evidence to render the sentence S probable. (la) So, relative to what I know, it is rational of me to believe S. (2) Now that I have more evidence, S may no longer be probable. (2a) So now, relative to what I know, it is…

A confidence distribution is a distribution for a parameter of interest based on a parametric statistical model. As such, it serves the same purpose for frequentist statisticians as a posterior distribution for Bayesians, since it allows to…

The Gaussian theory of errors has been generalized to situations, where the Gaussian distribution and, hence, the Gaussian rules of error propagation are inadequate. The generalizations are based on Bayes' theorem and a suitable measure.…

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

Standard statistical theory has arguably proved to be unsuitable as a basis for constructing a satisfactory completely general framework for performing statistical inference. For example, frequentist theory has never come close to providing…

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard for scientists seeking to learn about cause and effect. When randomized experiments are infeasible, scientists often resort to observational studies, which are widely available and…

This paper discusses regularized estimators in the multivariate statistical model as tools naturally arising within a Bayesian framework. First, a link is established between Bayesian estimation and inference under parameter rounding…

The notion of confidence distributions is applied to inference about the parameter in a simple autoregressive model, allowing the parameter to take the value one. This makes it possible to compare to asymptotic approximations in both the…

One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…

We present a comparative study between classical probability and quantum probability from the Bayesian viewpoint, where probability is construed as our rational degree of belief on whether a given statement is true. From this viewpoint,…

The traditional calculus-based introduction to statistical inference consists of a semester of probability followed by a semester of frequentist inference. Cobb (2015) challenges the statistical education community to rethink the…

Instead of testing for unanimous agreement, I propose learning how broad of a consensus favors one distribution over another (of earnings, productivity, asset returns, test scores, etc.). Specifically, given a sample from each of two…

Diagnostic reasoning has been characterized logically as consistency-based reasoning or abductive reasoning. Previous analyses in the literature have shown, on the one hand, that choosing the (in general more restrictive) abductive…

We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…

Bayes' rule plays a crucial piece of logical inference in information and physical sciences alike. Its extension into the quantum regime has been the object of several recent works. These quantum versions of Bayes' rule have been expressed…

Quantum theory is formulated as the uniquely consistent way to manipulate probability amplitudes. The crucial ingredient is a consistency constraint: if the amplitude of a quantum process can be computed in two different ways, the two…

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…