相关论文: Towards Reconciliation between Bayesian and Freque…

Qualitative and quantitative approaches to reasoning about uncertainty can lead to different logical systems for formalizing such reasoning, even when the language for expressing uncertainty is the same. In the case of reasoning about…

In this paper the elicitation of probabilities from human experts is considered as a measurement process, which may be disturbed by random 'measurement noise'. Using Bayesian concepts a second order probability distribution is derived…

We propose a method for combining probabilistic outputs of classifiers to make a single consensus class prediction when no further information about the individual classifiers is available, beyond that they have been trained for the same…

To support the understanding of declarative probabilistic programming languages, we introduce a lambda-calculus with a fair binary probabilistic choice that chooses between its arguments with equal probability. The reduction strategy of the…

In Bayesian statistics, the selection of noninformative priors is a crucial issue. There have been various discussions on theoretical justification, problems with the Jeffreys prior, and alternative objective priors. Among them, we focus on…

Statistical inference on the explained variation of an outcome by a set of covariates is of particular interest in practice. When the covariates are of moderate to high-dimension and the effects are not sparse, several approaches have been…

Kernel density estimation is a widely used nonparametric approach to estimate an unknown distribution. Recent work in Bayesian predictive inference has considered stochastic processes formed by specifying the predictive distribution for the…

Statistical sufficiency formalizes the notion of data reduction. In the decision theoretic interpretation, once a model is chosen all inferences should be based on a sufficient statistic. However, suppose we start with a set of procedures…

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly…

Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…

Classical statistics and Bayesian statistics refer to the frequentist and subjective theories of probability respectively. Von Mises and De Finetti, who authored those conceptualizations, provide interpretations of the probability that…

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

We investigate Bayesian non-parametric inference of the $\Lambda$-measure of $\Lambda$-coalescent processes with recurrent mutation, parametrised by probability measures on the unit interval. We give verifiable criteria on the prior for…

An increasing number of scientific experiments support the view of perception as Bayesian inference, which is rooted in Helmholtz's view of perception as unconscious inference. Recent study of logic presents a view of logical reasoning as…

We consider generic optimal Bayesian inference, namely, models of signal reconstruction where the posterior distribution and all hyperparameters are known. Under a standard assumption on the concentration of the free energy, we show how…

Inference is a fundamental reasoning technique in probability theory. When applied to a large joint distribution, it involves updating with evidence (conditioning) in one or more components (variables) and computing the outcome in other…

We give an overview of some uses of proper scoring rules in statistical inference, including frequentist estimation theory and Bayesian model selection with improper priors.

Functional Distributional Semantics provides a computationally tractable framework for learning truth-conditional semantics from a corpus. Previous work in this framework has provided a probabilistic version of first-order logic, recasting…

This study has the purpose of addressing four questions that lie at the base of the probability theory and statistics, and includes two main steps. As first, we conduct the textual analysis of the most significant works written by eminent…

Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…