相关论文: Towards Reconciliation between Bayesian and Freque…

Driven by the interest of reasoning about probabilistic programming languages, we set out to study a notion of unicity of normal forms for them. To provide a tractable proof method for it, we define a property of distribution confluence…

A classical problem of statistical inference is the valid specification of a model that can account for the statistical dependencies between observations when the true structure is dense, intractable, or unknown. To address this problem, a…

This paper presents a brief, semi-technical comparison of the essential features of the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference, with several illustrative examples implemented in Python. The differences between…

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of…

This paper develops a new framework for indirect statistical inference with guaranteed necessity and sufficiency, applicable to continuous random variables. We prove that when comparing exponentially transformed order statistics from an…

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

We consider the classification problem of a high-dimensional mixture of two Gaussians with general covariance matrices. Using the replica method from statistical physics, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of a general class of…

Knowledge gradient is a design principle for developing Bayesian sequential sampling policies to solve optimization problems. In this paper we consider the ranking and selection problem in the presence of covariates, where the best…

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

In the interpretation of experimental data, one is actually looking for plausible explanations. We look for a measure of plausibility, with which we can compare different possible explanations, and which can be combined when there are…

Probabilistic programming languages rely fundamentally on some notion of sampling, and this is doubly true for probabilistic programming languages which perform Bayesian inference using Monte Carlo techniques. Verifying samplers - proving…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

Bayesian probabilistic programming languages (BPPLs) let users denote statistical models as code while the interpreter infers the posterior distribution. The semantics of BPPLs are usually mathematically complex and unable to reason about…

In statistical practice, whether a Bayesian or frequentist approach is used in inference depends not only on the availability of prior information but also on the attitude taken toward partial prior information, with frequentists tending to…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

The aim of this paper is to firmly establish subjective fiducial inference as a rival to the more conventional schools of statistical inference, and to show that Fisher's intuition concerning the importance of the fiducial argument was…