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We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-11 Angelo Mele , Lingjiong Zhu

This article describes a robust algorithm to estimate a conditional probability density f(t|x) as a non-parametric smooth regression function. It is based on a neural network and the Bayesian interpretation of the network output as a…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Michael Feindt

In this paper we estimate the expected error of a stochastic approximation algorithm where the maximum of a function is found using finite differences of a stochastic representation of that function. An error estimate of $O(n^{-1/5})$ for…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-09-02 Miklos Rasonyi , Kinga Tikosi

In this paper, we give sufficient conditions to establish central limit theorems for boundary estimates of Poisson point processes. The considered estimates are obtained by smoothing some bias corrected extreme values of the point process.…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Ludovic Menneteau

The aim of this paper is to study the behavior of the weighted empirical measures of the decreasing step Euler scheme of a one-dimensional diffusion process having multiple invariant measures. This situation can occur when the drift and the…

概率论 · 数学 2018-02-20 Vincent Lemaire

Gaussian processes are a powerful class of non-linear models, but have limited applicability for larger datasets due to their high computational complexity. In such cases, approximate methods are required, for example, the recently…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-24 Soham Mukherjee , Manfred Claassen , Paul-Christian Bürkner

This paper focuses on the problem of determining as large a region as possible where a function exceeds a given threshold with high probability. We assume that we only have access to a noise-corrupted version of the function and that…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-27 Andrea Zanette , Junzi Zhang , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

We revisit the replica method for analyzing inference and learning in parametric models, considering situations where the data-generating distribution is unknown or analytically intractable. Instead of assuming idealized distributions to…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2025-11-17 Takashi Takahashi

We perform an error analysis for numerical approximation methods of continuous time Markov chain models commonly found in the chemistry and biochemistry literature. The motivation for the analysis is to be able to compare the accuracy of…

概率论 · 数学 2012-02-15 David F. Anderson , Arnab Ganguly , Thomas G. Kurtz

We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-22 Siavash Ameli , Shawn C. Shadden

We study the approximation of expectations $\E(f(X))$ for Gaussian random elements $X$ with values in a separable Hilbert space $H$ and Lipschitz continuous functionals $f \colon H \to \R$. We consider restricted Monte Carlo algorithms,…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-02-15 Michael B. Giles , Mario Hefter , Lukas Mayer , Klaus Ritter

Recently, a novel linear model predictive control algorithm based on a physics-informed Gaussian Process has been introduced, whose realizations strictly follow a system of underlying linear ordinary differential equations with constant…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-05-01 Adrian Lepp , Jörn Tebbe , Andreas Besginow

We study the problem of unbiased estimation of expectations with respect to (w.r.t.) $\pi$ a given, general probability measure on $(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d))$ that is absolutely continuous with respect to a standard Gaussian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-10-26 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

We consider a linear stochastic differential equation with stochastic drift. We study the problem of approximating the solution of such equation through an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process, by using direct methods of calculus of variations.…

概率论 · 数学 2020-05-01 Giacomo Ascione , Giuseppe D'Onofrio , Lubomir Kostal , Enrica Pirozzi

The main objective of the paper is to study the long-time behavior of general discrete dynamics driven by an ergodic stationary Gaussian noise. In our main result, we prove existence and uniqueness of the invariant distribution and exhibit…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-14 Maylis Varvenne

The Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm is widely used to optimise non-convex likelihood functions with latent variables. Many authors modified its simple design to fit more specific situations. For instance, the Expectation (E) step…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-05-03 Thomas Lartigue , Stanley Durrleman , Stéphanie Allassonnière

In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-02 Hossein Mohammadi , Peter Challenor , Marc Goodfellow , Daniel Williamson

Computing the Euler genus of a graph is a fundamental problem in graph theory and topology. It has been shown to be NP-hard by [Thomassen '89] and a linear-time fixed-parameter algorithm has been obtained by [Mohar '99]. Despite extensive…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2014-12-05 Ken-ichi Kawarabayashi , Anastasios Sidiropoulos

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-08-30 Ji Xu , Daniel Hsu , Arian Maleki

The aim of this note is to present a self-contained proof of the fact that a function can be approximated using a linear combination of Gaussian coherent states, with a number of terms controlled in terms of the smoothness and of the decay…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-03-20 T. Chaumont-Frelet , M. Ingremeau
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