相关论文: Stability and the Lyapounov exponent of threshold …
Let $Y$ be an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion governed by an ergodic finite state Markov process $X$: $dY_t=-\lambda(X_t)Y_tdt+\sigma(X_t)dB_t$, $Y_0$ given. Under ergodicity condition, we get quantitative estimates for the long time behavior…
This paper gathers together different conditions which are all equivalent to geometric ergodicity of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general state spaces. A total of 34 different conditions are presented (27 for general chains plus 7 just…
This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…
Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (OGARCH) is widely used in finance industry to produce volatility and correlation forecasts. We show that the classic OGARCH model, nevertheless, tends to be too…
We study a Markov process with two components: the first component evolves according to one of finitely many underlying Markovian dynamics, with a choice of dynamics that changes at the jump times of the second component. The second…
We study a class of dynamical systems generated by random substitutions, which contains both intrinsically ergodic systems and instances with several measures of maximal entropy. In this class, we show that the measures of maximal entropy…
We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…
This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…
A typical bottleneck of model predictive control algorithms is the computational burden in order to compute the receding horizon feedback law which is predominantly determined by the length of the prediction horizon. Based on a relaxed…
Many real-world dynamics exhibit chaos, a phenomenon in which neighboring trajectories in the state space of a dynamical system diverge exponentially over time. A common measure used for quantifying the degree of this divergence is the…
We propose a method of estimating ergodization time of a chaotic many-particle system by monitoring equilibrium noise before and after time reversal of dynamics (Loschmidt echo). The ergodization time is defined as the characteristic time…
For both continuous-time and discrete-time Markov Chains, we provide criteria for inverse problems of classical types of ergodicity: (ordinary) erogodicity, algebraic ergodicity, exponential ergodicity and strong ergodicity. Our criteria…
Lyapunov exponents measure the average exponential growth rate of typical linear perturbations in a chaotic system, and the inverse of the largest exponent is a measure of the time horizon over which the evolution of the system can be…
Time series often exhibit non-ergodic behaviour that complicates forecasting and inference. This article proposes a likelihood-based approach for estimating ergodicity transformations that addresses such challenges. The method is broadly…
AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to…
In the framework of statistical mechanics the properties of macroscopic systems are deduced starting from the laws of their microscopic dynamics. One of the key assumptions in this procedure is the ergodic property, namely the equivalence…
The predictability problem for systems with different characteristic time scales is investigated. It is shown that even in simple chaotic dynamical systems, the leading Lyapunov exponent is not sufficient to estimate the predictability…
We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…
Drawing on ergodic theory, we introduce a novel training method for machine learning based forecasting methods for chaotic dynamical systems. The training enforces dynamical invariants--such as the Lyapunov exponent spectrum and fractal…
We formulate a criterion for the existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure for a Markov process taking values in a Polish phase space. In addition, weak-$^*$ ergodicity, that is, the weak convergence of the ergodic averages of the…