相关论文: Non-asymptotic calibration and resolution

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…

Many algorithms in computer vision and robotics make strong assumptions about uncertainty, and rely on the validity of these assumptions to produce accurate and consistent state estimates. In practice, dynamic environments may degrade…

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

We introduce Observation-aware Conformal Uncertainty Local-Calibration (OCULAR), a conformal prediction-based algorithm that uses perception information to provide uncertainty quantification guarantees for unseen test-time environments.…

Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various…

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

We study the problem of making calibrated probabilistic forecasts for a binary sequence generated by an adversarial nature. Following the seminal paper of Foster and Vohra (1998), nature is often modeled as an adaptive adversary who sees…

Deep neural networks often produce miscalibrated probability estimates, leading to overconfident predictions. A common approach for calibration is fitting a post-hoc calibration map on unseen validation data that transforms predicted…

Recent research has established sufficient conditions for finite mixture models to be identifiable from grouped observations. These conditions allow the mixture components to be nonparametric and have substantial (or even total) overlap.…

We introduce an algorithm which, in the context of nonlinear regression on vector-valued explanatory variables, chooses those combinations of vector components that provide best prediction. The algorithm devotes particular attention to…

We study convex empirical risk minimization for high-dimensional inference in binary models. Our first result sharply predicts the statistical performance of such estimators in the linear asymptotic regime under isotropic Gaussian features.…

Accurate quantification of uncertainty is crucial for real-world applications of machine learning. However, modern deep neural networks still produce unreliable predictive uncertainty, often yielding over-confident predictions. In this…

Regularized kernel methods such as, e.g., support vector machines and least-squares support vector regression constitute an important class of standard learning algorithms in machine learning. Theoretical investigations concerning…

Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P\bigl(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr)$ be the predictive distributions of a sequence $(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of $p$-dimensional random vectors. Suppose $$\alpha_n= \mathcal{N} _p (M_n,Q_n)$$ where…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

We consider the problem of predicting a real random variable from a functional explanatory variable. The problem is attacked by mean of nonparametric kernel approach which has been recently adapted to this functional context. We derive…

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing density based on observations from the corresponding mixture is a challenging statistical problem. This paper surveys the literature on a fast, recursive estimator based on the predictive recursion…

In this work we are interested in the problems of supervised learning and variable selection when the input-output dependence is described by a nonlinear function depending on a few variables. Our goal is to consider a sparse nonparametric…

Depth measures have gained popularity in the statistical literature for defining level sets in complex data structures like multivariate data, functional data, and graphs. Despite their versatility, integrating depth measures into…

Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks are poorly calibrated and tend to output overconfident…