相关论文: Volatility conditional on price trends

We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…

Markets have internal dynamics leading to excess volatility and other phenomena that are difficult to explain using rational expectations models. This paper studies these using a nonequilibrium price formation rule, developed in the context…

We propose an artificial market model based on deterministic agents. The agents modify their ask/bid price depending on past price changes. The temporal development of market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability…

We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made,…

We prove that a wide class of correlated stochastic volatility models exactly measure an empirical fact in which past returns are anticorrelated with future volatilities: the so-called ``leverage effect''. This quantitative measure allows…

By studying all the trades and best bids/asks of ultra high frequency snapshots recorded from the order books of a basket of 10 futures assets, we bring qualitative empirical evidence that the impact of a single trade depends on the…

For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3…

The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on…

Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…

Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…

We investigate possible origins of trends using a deterministic threshold model, where we refer to long-term variabilities of price changes (price movements) in financial markets as trends. From the investigation we find two phenomena. One…

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…

Volatility is a natural risk measure in finance as it quantifies the variation of stock prices. A frequently considered problem in mathematical finance is to forecast different estimates of volatility. What makes it promising to use deep…

We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which…

A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price…

Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range…

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns of price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used…

Prices in financial markets exhibit extreme jumps far more often than can be accounted for by external news. Further, magnitudes of price changes are correlated over long times. These so called stylized facts are quantified by scaling laws…