相关论文: Modelling High-frequency Economic Time Series
The shape and tails of partial distribution functions (PDF) for a climatological signal, i.e. the El Nino SOI and the turbulent nature of the ocean-atmosphere variability are linked through a model encompassing Tsallis nonextensive…
Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data.…
Adaptive Langevin dynamics is a method for sampling the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution at prescribed temperature in cases where the potential gradient is subject to stochastic perturbation of unknown magnitude. The method replaces the…
This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying…
Memory effects, sometimes, can not be neglected. In the framework of continuous time random walk, memory effect is modeled by the correlated waiting times. In this paper, we derive the two-point probability distribution of the stochastic…
We present results on the ballistic and diffusive behavior of the Langevin dynamics in a periodic potential that is driven away from equilibrium by a space-time periodic driving force, extending some of the results obtained by Collet and…
Statistical dynamics of financial systems is investigated, based on a model of a randomly coupled equation system driven by a stochastic Langevin force. Anticorrelations of price returns, and subdiffusion of prices is found from the model,…
A dynamical systems approach to turbulence envisions the flow as a trajectory through a high-dimensional state space transiently visiting the neighbourhoods of unstable simple invariant solutions (E. Hopf, Commun. Appl. Maths 1, 303, 1948).…
A central problem of Quantitative Finance is that of formulating a probabilistic model of the time evolution of asset prices allowing reliable predictions on their future volatility. As in several natural phenomena, the predictions of such…
With improved measurement and modelling technology, variability has emerged as an essential feature in non-equilibrium processes. While traditionally, mean values and variance have been heavily used, they are not appropriate in describing…
The phenomenology of velocity statistics in turbulent flows, up to now, relates to different models dealing with either signed or unsigned longitudinal velocity increments, with either inertial or dissipative fluctuations. In this paper, we…
We consider the model of Brownian motion indexed by the Brownian tree, which has appeared in a variety of different contexts in probability, statistical physics and combinatorics. For this model, the total occupation measure is known to…
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…
A novel methodology to analyze non-Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs) of intermittent turbulent transport in global full-f gyrokinetic simulations is presented. In this work, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average…
We consider a previously devised model describing Levy random walks (Phys. Rev E 79, 011110; 80, 031148, (2009)). It is demonstrated numerically that the given model describes Levy random walks with superdiffusive, ballistic, as well as…
Many studies on biological and soft matter systems report the joint presence of a linear mean-squared displacement and a non-Gaussian probability density exhibiting, for instance, exponential or stretched-Gaussian tails. This phenomenon is…
The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…
A model has two main aims: predicting the behavior of a physical system and understanding its nature, that is how it works, at some desired level of abstraction. A promising recent approach to model building consists in deriving a…
Ultraslow diffusion (i.e. logarithmic diffusion) has been extensively studied theoretically, but has hardly been observed empirically. In this paper, firstly, we find the ultraslow-like diffusion of the time-series of word counts of already…
The probability distribution (PD) of spin configurations in kinetic Ising models has been cast in the form of the canonical Boltzmann PD with a time-dependent effective Hamiltonian (EH). It has been argued that in systems with extensive…