相关论文: Deterministic Chaos in Tropical Atmospheric Dynami…
A system of five ordinary differential equations is studied which combines the Lorenz-84 model for the atmosphere and a box model for the ocean. The behaviour of this system is studied as a function of the coupling parameters. For most…
The predictability of a coupled system composed by a coupled reduced-order extratropical ocean-atmosphere model forced by a low-order 3-variable tropical recharge-discharge model, is explored with emphasis on the long term forecasting…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
Understanding how vegetation loss alters rainfall remains a major challenge in climate and hydrological science, as deforestation modifies precipitation through heterogeneous, seasonal and nonlinear land-atmosphere feedbacks. Existing…
We consider a pendulum with vertically oscillating support and time-dependent damping coefficient which varies until reaching a finite final value. The sizes of the corresponding basins of attraction are found to depend strongly on the full…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is critical for disaster warning and emergency response. Deep learning methods address computational challenges but often neglect physical relationships between TC attributes, resulting in predictions…
Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…
The character of the time-asymptotic evolution of physical systems can have complex, singular behavior with variation of a system parameter, particularly when chaos is involved. A perturbation of the parameter by a small amount $\epsilon$…
We study the dynamical properties of a broad class of high-dimensional random dynamical systems exhibiting chaotic as well as fixed point and periodic attractors. We consider cases in which attractors can co-exists in some regions of the…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Starting from the classical Saltzman 2D convection equations, we derive via a severe spectral truncation a minimal 10 ODE system which includes the thermal effect of viscous dissipation. Neglecting this process leads to a dynamical system…
Estimating background-error covariances remains a core challenge in variational data assimilation (DA). Operational systems typically approximate these covariances by transformations that separate geostrophically balanced components from…
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…
Using analytic arguments, we show that dynamical attractor periods in large critical Boolean networks are power-law distributed. Our arguments are based on the method of relevant components, which focuses on the behavior of the nodes that…
In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the…
The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The…
The statistical behavior of weather variables of Antofagasta is described, especially the daily data of air as temperature, pressure and relative humidity measured at 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00. In this article, we use a time series…
Spatially dependent parameters of a two-component chaotic reaction-diffusion PDE model describing ocean ecology are observed by sampling a single species. We estimate model parameters and the other species in the system by…
We introduce a model for information spreading among a population of N agents diffusing on a square LxL lattice, starting from an informed agent (Source). Information passing from informed to unaware agents occurs whenever the relative…