相关论文: Toward general solutions to time-series problems: …

Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…

Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…

When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…

We study the problem of estimating the mode and maximum of an unknown regression function in the presence of noise. We adopt the Bayesian approach by using tensor-product B-splines and endowing the coefficients with Gaussian priors. In the…

Machines that can replicate human intelligence with type 2 reasoning capabilities should be able to reason at multiple levels of spatio-temporal abstractions and scales using internal world models. Devising formalisms to develop such…

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum…

We extend the recently introduced regularization/Bayesian System Identification procedures to the estimation of time-varying systems. Specifically, we consider an online setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. The…

Many quantum algorithms contain an important subroutine, the quantum amplitude estimation. As the name implies, this is essentially the parameter estimation problem and thus can be handled via the established statistical estimation theory.…

We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…

Regularization is a well studied problem in the context of neural networks. It is usually used to improve the generalization performance when the number of input samples is relatively small or heavily contaminated with noise. The…

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for solving sequential decision making problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to contextual bandits and reinforcement learning. This is accomplished by a probabilistic model-based approach…

In real-world scenarios like traffic and energy, massive time-series data with missing values and noises are widely observed, even sampled irregularly. While many imputation methods have been proposed, most of them work with a local…

In this work, we will investigate a Bayesian approach to estimating the parameters of long memory models. Long memory, characterized by the phenomenon of hyperbolic autocorrelation decay in time series, has garnered significant attention.…

A noise source model, consisting of a pulse sequence at random times with memory, is presented. By varying the memory we can obtain variable randomness of the stochastic process. The delay time between pulses, i. e. the noise memory,…

Piecewise constant denoising can be solved either by deterministic optimization approaches, based on the Potts model, or by stochastic Bayesian procedures. The former lead to low computational time but require the selection of a…

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…

Adding domain knowledge to a learning system is known to improve results. In multi-parameter Bayesian frameworks, such knowledge is incorporated as a prior. On the other hand, various model parameters can have different learning rates in…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

The particle-in-cell numerical method of plasma physics balances a trade-off between computational cost and intrinsic noise. Inference on data produced by these simulations generally consists of binning the data to recover the particle…