相关论文: Toward general solutions to time-series problems: …

The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the…

Understanding how external stimuli are encoded in distributed neural activity is of significant interest in clinical and basic neuroscience. To address this need, it is essential to develop analytical tools capable of handling limited data…

Empirical time series often contain observational noise. We investigate the effect of this noise on the estimated parameters of models fitted to the data. For data of physiological tremor, i.e. a small amplitude oscillation of the…

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

This paper studies a problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for a sequence of scaled counting processes whose weak limit is a Brownian motion with an unknown drift. The main result of the paper is that the limit of the posterior…

We analyze gradient descent with randomly weighted data points in a linear regression model, under a generic weighting distribution. This includes various forms of stochastic gradient descent, importance sampling, but also extends to…

A modelling framework, based on the theory of signal processing, for characterising the dynamics of systems driven by the unravelling of information is outlined, and is applied to describe the process of decision making. The model input of…

Time-series classification is an important domain of machine learning and a plethora of methods have been developed for the task. In comparison to existing approaches, this study presents a novel method which decomposes a time-series…

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based…

Background: Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time…

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise which is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates are…

Modelling noisy data in a network context remains an unavoidable obstacle; fortunately, random matrix theory may comprehensively describe network environments effectively. Thus it necessitates the probabilistic characterisation of these…

Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the…

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

High-throughput data analyses are becoming common in biology, communications, economics and sociology. The vast amounts of data are usually represented in the form of matrices and can be considered as knowledge networks. Spectra-based…

Stochastic systems with memory naturally appear in life science, economy, and finance. We take the modelling point of view of stochastic functional delay equations and we study these structures when the driving noises admit jumps. Our…

Bayesian optimization is a sequential method for minimizing objective functions that are expensive to evaluate and about which few assumptions can be made. By using all gathered data to train a Gaussian process model for the function and…

Model fitting is possibly the most extended problem in science. Classical approaches include the use of least-squares fitting procedures and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the value of the parameters in the model. However, in recent…