相关论文: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method
A test of a new Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction (Wheatland 2004a) is presented. The approach uses the past history of flaring together with phenomenological rules of flare statistics to make a prediction for the probability of…
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…
Solar flares, along with other sun-originated events such as Coronal Mass Ejections, fast solar wind streams, and solar energetic particles are among the most relevant events in Space Weather. Moreover, solar flares are the most energetic…
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…
The Geostationary Orbital Environmental Satellites (GOES) Soft X-ray (SXR) sensors have provided data relating to, inter alia, the time, intensity and duration of solar flares since the 1970s. The GOES SXR Flare List has become the standard…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) solar soft X-ray (SXR) irradiance in the 1-8{\AA} wavelength range is a long-standing measure of solar activity, used to define the classification of flare strengths. As a result,…
Solar flares are large-scale releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, which are characterised by rapid changes in the hydrodynamic properties of plasma from the photosphere to the corona. Solar physicists have typically attempted to…
Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…
The output of solar power generation is significantly dependent on the available solar radiation. Thus, with the proliferation of PV generation in the modern power grid, forecasting of solar irradiance is vital for proper operation of the…
Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission…
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…
The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that…
Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…