相关论文: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method

Solar flare X-ray emission results from rapidly increasing temperatures and emission measures in flaring active region loops. To date, observations from the X-Ray Sensor (XRS) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite…

A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to…

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues the official U.S. government forecast for M-class and X-class solar flares, yet the skill of these forecasts has never been comprehensively verified. In this study, we evaluate the SWPC…

We have compiled a catalog of solar flares as observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and the GOES spacecraft over a span from 1997 to 2010. During…

Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…

Mercury mission MESSENGER's %(MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging Solar Assembly for X-rays (SAX) observed almost 700 solar flares between May 28, 2007 and August 19, 2013, as cataloged by…

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe…

The question of whether flares occur as a Poisson process has important consequences for flare physics. Recently Lepreti et al. presented evidence for local departure from Poisson statistics in the Geostationary Operational Environmental…

The light curves of solar flares in the impulsive phase are complex in general, indicating that multiple physical processes are involved in. With the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) observations, we find that there…

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in…

A Bayesian probability based approach is applied to the problem of detecting and parameterizing oscillations in the upper solar atmosphere for the first time. Due to its statistical origin, this method provides a mechanism for determining…

Knowing the behavior of solar radiation at a geographic location is essential for the use of energy from the sun using photovoltaic systems; however, the number of stations for measuring meteorological parameters and for determining the…

Monitoring of the Sun and its activity is a task of growing importance in the frame of space weather research and awareness. Major space weather disturbances at Earth have their origin in energetic outbursts from the Sun: solar flares,…

As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods…

Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. Only by realtime forecast we can…

The statistical examination of solar flares is crucial to revealing their global characteristics and behaviour. Such examinations can tackle large-scale science questions or give context to detailed single-event studies. However, they are…

The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…

Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…