相关论文: A Statistical Solar Flare Forecast Method

In this paper, the cooling of 72 M- and X-class flares is examined using GOES/XRS and SDO/EVE. The observed cooling rates are quantified and the observed total cooling times are compared to the predictions of an analytical 0-D hydrodynamic…

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and the topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M and X class) flares is…

Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…

The aim of the present investigation is to study the spatio-temporal distribution of precursor flares during the 24-hour interval preceding M- and X-class major flares and the evolution of follower flares. Information on associated…

Solar flare activity is characterised by different classification systems, both in optical and X-ray ranges. The most generally accepted classifications of solar flares describe important parameters of flares such as the maximum of…

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) cause significant radiation hazards to satellites, astronauts, and technological systems. Accurate forecasting of their proton flux time profiles is crucial for early warnings and mitigation. This paper explores…

Propagation effects are one of the main sources of noise in high-precision pulsar timing. For pulsars below an ecliptic latitude of $5^\circ$, the ionised plasma in the solar wind can introduce dispersive delays of order 100 microseconds…

Machine learning models for forecasting solar flares have been trained and evaluated using a variety of data sources, including Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) operational and science-quality data. Typically, data from these sources…

We propose a new statistical protocol for the estimation of precipitation using lightning data. We first identify rainy events using a scan statistics, then we estimate Rainfall Lighting Ratio (RLR) to convert lightning number into rain…

AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attivit\`a di Studio per la…

Predicting the intensity and amount of sunlight as a function of location and time is an essential component in identifying promising locations for economical solar farming. Although weather models and irradiance data are relatively…

The spot evolution on the Sun and solar-type stars is important for understanding the nature of consequential flaring activity. This study statistically investigates the variance of flare occurrence rate through the time evolution of spots…

We introduce a hybrid approach to solar flare prediction, whereby a supervised regularization method is used to realize feature importance and an unsupervised clustering method is used to realize the binary flare/no-flare decision. The…

We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a…

The waiting time statistics of solar flares provides clues for the underlying physical mechanisms. However, flares occurring on the far-side have been missing in the statistics. In the 2024 May and June, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft…

This paper develops a planetary model to predict the occurrence of intermediate range periodicity in solar activity, in particular the ~155 day Rieger periodicity in flare activity. It is shown that periodicity at half integer multiples of…

We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised…

As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally,…