English

Anticipating Solar Flares

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics 2024-07-08 v1

Abstract

Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission model to the flare excess fluxes by comparing the GOES passbands at 1-8 A and 0.5-4 A, and plotting the timewise evolution of the flare emission in a diagram of temperature \textit{vs} emission measure. The HOPE then appears as an initial "horizontal branch" in this diagram. It precedes the non-thermal impulsive phase of the flare and thus the flare peak in soft X-rays as well. We use this property to define a "flare anticipation index" (FAI), which can serve as an alert for observational programs aimed at solar flares based on near-real-time soft X-ray observations. This FAI gives lead times of a few minutes and produces very few false positive alerts even for flare brightenings too weak to merit NOAA classification.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2407.04567,
  title  = {Anticipating Solar Flares},
  author = {Hugh S. Hudson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.04567},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

Submitted to Solar Physics March 10, 2024

R2 v1 2026-06-28T17:30:23.596Z