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We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

Starting from a particle model describing self-propelled particles interacting through nematic alignment, we derive a macroscopic model for the particle density and mean direction of motion. We first propose a mean-field kinetic model of…

数学物理 · 物理学 2019-10-08 Pierre Degond , Sara Merino-Aceituno

Bayesian inference can be embedded into an appropriately defined dynamics in the space of probability measures. In this paper, we take Brownian motion and its associated Fokker--Planck equation as a starting point for such embeddings and…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-02-09 Sebastian Reich , Simon Weissmann

For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2025-09-03 Joshua Albert , Csaba Balazs , Andrew Fowlie , Will Handley , Nicholas Hunt-Smith , Roberto Ruiz de Austri , Martin White

Nested sampling is an efficient algorithm for the calculation of the Bayesian evidence and posterior parameter probability distributions. It is based on the step-by-step exploration of the parameter space by Monte Carlo sampling with a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-01-30 M. Trassinelli , Pierre Ciccodicola

The main object of this paper is to show how we can use classical probabilistic methods such as Maximum Entropy (ME), maximum likelihood (ML) and/or Bayesian (BAYES) approaches to do microscopic and macroscopic data fusion. Actually ME can…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-05-23 A. Mohammad-Djafari

Two algorithms that combine Brownian dynamics (BD) simulations with mean-field partial differential equations (PDEs) are presented. This PDE-assisted Brownian dynamics (PBD) methodology provides exact particle tracking data in parts of the…

计算物理 · 物理学 2012-06-27 Benjamin Franz , Mark B. Flegg , S. Jonathan Chapman , Radek Erban

This work presents a novel and effective method for fitting multidimensional ellipsoids to scattered data in the contamination of noise and outliers. We approach the problem as a Bayesian parameter estimate process and maximize the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-30 Zhao Mingyang , Jia Xiaohong , Ma Lei , Shi Yuke , Jiang Jingen , Li Qizhai , Yan Dong-Ming , Huang Tiejun

Problems of probabilistic inference and decision making under uncertainty commonly involve continuous random variables. Often these are discretized to a few points, to simplify assessments and computations. An alternative approximation is…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-03-08 William B. Poland , Ross D. Shachter

Over the last decades, various "non-linear" MCMC methods have arisen. While appealing for their convergence speed and efficiency, their practical implementation and theoretical study remain challenging. In this paper, we introduce a…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-08-04 Grégoire Clarté , Antoine Diez , Jean Feydy

The mean field limits of systems of interacting diffusions (also called stochastic interacting particle systems (SIPS)) have been intensively studied since McKean \cite{mckean1966class}. The interacting diffusions pave a way to…

概率论 · 数学 2021-04-06 Lukasz Szpruch , Shuren Tan , Alvin Tse

Mutual Information (MI) is a crucial measure for capturing dependencies between variables, but exact computation is challenging in high dimensions with intractable likelihoods, impacting accuracy and robustness. One idea is to use an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-13 Forough Fazeliasl , Michael Minyi Zhang , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong

Distributed inference/estimation in Bayesian framework in the context of sensor networks has recently received much attention due to its broad applicability. The variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm is a technique for approximating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-11-30 Junhao Hua , Chunguang Li

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-22 P. Choppala , D. Gunawan , J. Chen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

We study two interacting particle systems, both modeled as a system of $N$ stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions with singular kernels and moderate interaction. We show a quantitative result where the convergence rate…

概率论 · 数学 2025-01-22 Josué Knorst , Christian Olivera , Alexandre B. de Souza

By formulating the inverse problem of partial differential equations (PDEs) as a statistical inference problem, the Bayesian approach provides a general framework for quantifying uncertainties. In the inverse problem of PDEs, parameters are…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-02-10 Haoyu Lu , Junxiong Jia , Deyu Meng

Finding the model that best describes a high-dimensional dataset is a daunting task, even more so if one aims to consider all possible high-order patterns of the data, going beyond pairwise models. For binary data, we show that this task…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-08-28 Clélia de Mulatier , Matteo Marsili

Detecting changes is of fundamental importance when analyzing data streams and has many applications, e.g., in predictive maintenance, fraud detection, or medicine. A principled approach to detect changes is to compare the distributions of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-13 Florian Kalinke , Marco Heyden , Georg Gntuni , Edouard Fouché , Klemens Böhm

A generic algorithm for the extraction of probabilistic (Bayesian) information about model parameters from data is presented. The algorithm propagates an ensemble of particles in the product space of model parameters and outputs. Each…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-09-18 Carlo Albert