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When direct measurement of a clinically relevant primary endpoint in a clinical trial is infeasible, a surrogate endpoint may be used instead to infer treatment effects. Trial-level surrogates predict the average treatment effect on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Arthur Hughes , Rodolphe Thiébaut , Layla Parast , Boris P. Hejblum

One method to solve expensive black-box optimization problems is to use a surrogate model that approximates the objective based on previous observed evaluations. The surrogate, which is cheaper to evaluate, is optimized instead to find an…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-05-28 Rickard Karlsson , Laurens Bliek , Sicco Verwer , Mathijs de Weerdt

The method of surrogate data provides a framework for testing observed data against a hierarchy of alternative hypotheses. The aim of applying this method is to exclude the possibility that the data are consistent with simple linear…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Xiaodong Luo , Jie Zhang , Junfeng Sun , Michael Small , Irene Moroz

When the primary outcome is hard to collect, surrogate endpoint is typically used as a substitute. However, even when the treatment has a positive average causal effect (ACE) on the surrogate endpoint, which also has a positive ACE on the…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-07-20 Yunjian Yin , Lan Liu , Zhi Geng , Peng Luo

Many problems in computer vision have recently been tackled using models whose predictions cannot be easily interpreted, most commonly deep neural networks. Surrogate explainers are a popular post-hoc interpretability method to further…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-10-11 Ricardo Kleinlein , Alexander Hepburn , Raúl Santos-Rodríguez , Fernando Fernández-Martínez

Short- and long-term outcomes of an algorithm often differ, with damaging downstream effects. A known example is a click-bait algorithm, which may increase short-term clicks but damage long-term user engagement. A possible solution to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-25 Yuta Saito , Himan Abdollahpouri , Jesse Anderton , Ben Carterette , Mounia Lalmas

Surrogate models are used to reduce the burden of expensive-to-evaluate objective functions in optimization. By creating models which map genomes to objective values, these models can estimate the performance of unknown inputs, and so be…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2019-07-17 Alexander Hagg , Martin Zaefferer , Jörg Stork , Adam Gaier

Surrogate endpoints are very important in regulatory decision-making in healthcare, in particular if they can be measured early compared to the long-term final clinical outcome and act as good predictors of clinical benefit. Bivariate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-06 Sylwia Bujkiewicz , Dan Jackson , John R Thompson , Rebecca Turner , Keith R Abrams , Ian R White

Machine learning surrogate emulators are needed in engineering design and optimization tasks to rapidly emulate computationally expensive physics-based models. In micromechanics problems the local full-field response variables are desired…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2024-05-17 Patxi Fernandez-Zelaia , Jason Mayeur , Jiahao Cheng , Yousub Lee , Kevin Knipe , Kai Kadau

The surrogate data method is widely applied as a data dependent technique to test observed time series against a barrage of hypotheses. However, often the hypotheses one is able to address are not those of greatest interest, particularly…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Xiaodong Luo , Tomomichi Nakamura , Michael Small

Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling for large computer experiments is limited by cubic runtimes, especially with data from stochastic simulations with input-dependent noise. A popular workaround to reduce computational complexity…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-01 D Austin Cole , Robert B Gramacy , Mike Ludkovski

In meta-analytic modeling, the functional relationship between a primary and surrogate endpoint is estimated using summary data from a set of completed clinical trials. Parameters in the meta-analytic model are used to assess the quality of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-07 James P. Long , Abhishikta Roy , Ehsan Irajizad , Kim-Anh Do , Yu Shen

Optimization problems with nonlinear cost functions and combinatorial constraints appear in many real-world applications but remain challenging to solve efficiently compared to their linear counterparts. To bridge this gap, we propose…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-20 Aaron Ferber , Taoan Huang , Daochen Zha , Martin Schubert , Benoit Steiner , Bistra Dilkina , Yuandong Tian

Solving optimization problems with unknown parameters often requires learning a predictive model to predict the values of the unknown parameters and then solving the problem using these values. Recent work has shown that including the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-23 Kai Wang , Bryan Wilder , Andrew Perrault , Milind Tambe

A surrogate marker is a biomarker or other physical measurement used to replace a primary outcome in clinical trials to evaluate a treatment effect when the primary outcome of interest is costly, invasive, or takes a long time to observe.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-24 Emily Hsiao , Layla Parast

The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed, and a heterogeneous set of untreated units with pre- and post-policy change data are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-21 Jizhou Liu , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Carlos Varjão

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for evaluating the efficacy of an intervention. However, there is often a trade-off between selecting the most scientifically relevant primary endpoint versus a less relevant, but more…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-12 Jack M. Wolf , Joseph S. Koopmeiners , David M. Vock

Learning the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) is essential for personalized decision-making, yet causal inference has traditionally focused on aggregated treatment effects. While integrating conformal prediction with causal inference can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-23 Chenyin Gao , Peter B. Gilbert , Larry Han

Long-term outcomes are often unavailable in randomized clinical trials, although short-term surrogate outcomes are commonly observed. External observational data may contain the long-term outcome, but causal comparisons based on such data…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-15 Ziyang Liu , Niwen Zhou , Peng Wu , Xu Guo

The advent of noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers has put the search for possible applications to the forefront of quantum information science. One area where hopes for an advantage through near-term quantum computers are high is…

量子物理 · 物理学 2023-09-11 Franz J. Schreiber , Jens Eisert , Johannes Jakob Meyer