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In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the autocovariance sequence resulting from a reversible Markov chain. A motivating application for studying this problem is the estimation of the asymptotic variance in central limit…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-13 Stephen Berg , Hyebin Song

Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-11 Jurijs Nazarovs , Ronak R. Mehta , Vishnu Suresh Lokhande , Vikas Singh

The efficiency of Monte Carlo samplers is dictated not only by energetic effects, such as large barriers, but also by entropic effects that are due to the sheer volume that is sampled. The latter effects appear in the form of an entropic…

计算物理 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Cristian Predescu

In Monte-Carlo methods the Markov processes used to sample a given target distribution usually satisfy detailed balance, i.e. they are time-reversible. However, relatively recent results have demonstrated that appropriate reversible and…

概率论 · 数学 2016-06-29 Luc Rey-Bellet , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Many common Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) kernels can be formulated using a deterministic involutive proposal with a step size parameter. Selecting an appropriate step size is often a challenging task in practice; and for complex…

By facilitating the generation of samples from arbitrary probability distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is, arguably, \emph{the} tool for the evaluation of Bayesian inference problems that yield non-standard posterior…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-05-27 Peter L Green , Robert E Moore , Ryan J Jackson , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

The performance of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers heavily depends on the tuning of the Markov kernels used in the path proposal. For SMC samplers with unadjusted Markov kernels, standard tuning objectives, such as the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-11 Kyurae Kim , Zuheng Xu , Jacob R. Gardner , Trevor Campbell

Models with intractable normalizing functions have numerous applications. Because the normalizing constants are functions of the parameters of interest, standard Markov chain Monte Carlo cannot be used for Bayesian inference for these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-21 Bokgyeong Kang , John Hughes , Murali Haran

When the target parameter for inference is a real-valued, continuous function of probabilities in the $k$-sample multinomial problem, variance estimation may be challenging. In small samples or when the function is nondifferentiable at the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-05-13 Michael C Sachs , Erin E Gabriel , Michael P Fay

Given a real symmetric positive semi-definite matrix E, and an approximation S that is a sum of n independent matrix-valued random variables, we present bounds on the relative error in S due to randomization. The bounds do not depend on the…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-01-03 John T. Holodnak , Ilse C. F. Ipsen , Ralph C. Smith

We provide explicit nonasymptotic estimates for the rate of convergence of empirical means of Markov chains, together with a Gaussian or exponential control on the deviations of empirical means. These estimates hold under a "positive…

概率论 · 数学 2010-11-11 Aldéric Joulin , Yann Ollivier

To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…

概率论 · 数学 2023-08-15 Federica Milinanni , Pierre Nyquist

The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-01-07 Synge Todo , Hidemaro Suwa

We introduce an efficient numerical implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to sample a probability distribution on a manifold (introduced theoretically in Zappa, Holmes-Cerfon, Goodman (2018)), where the manifold is defined by…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-08-22 Kerun Xu , Miranda Holmes-Cerfon

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample from unnormalized probability distributions and offer guarantees of exact sampling. However, in the continuous case, unfavorable geometry of the target distribution can greatly limit the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-09 Zengyi Li , Yubei Chen , Friedrich T. Sommer

High-quality random samples of quantum states are needed for a variety of tasks in quantum information and quantum computation. Searching the high-dimensional quantum state space for a global maximum of an objective function with many local…

量子物理 · 物理学 2015-04-28 Jiangwei Shang , Yi-Lin Seah , Hui Khoon Ng , David John Nott , Berthold-Georg Englert

In Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, the thermal equilibria quantities are estimated by ensemble average over a sample set containing a large number of correlated samples. These samples are selected in accordance with the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-01-08 J. Li , P. Vignal , S. Sun , V. M. Calo

We consider the problem of improving the efficiency of randomized Fourier feature maps to accelerate training and testing speed of kernel methods on large datasets. These approximate feature maps arise as Monte Carlo approximations to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-08-11 Haim Avron , Vikas Sindhwani , Jiyan Yang , Michael Mahoney

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-04-17 Iain Murray , Lloyd T. Elliott

Practical applications of kernel methods often use variable bandwidth kernels, also known as self-tuning kernels, however much of the current theory of kernel based techniques is only applicable to fixed bandwidth kernels. In this paper, we…

谱理论 · 数学 2015-01-15 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim