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In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-12-08 Ruanui Nicholson , Radoslav Vuchkov , Umberto Villa , Noemi Petra

We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-11-22 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Empirical Bayes methods offer valuable tools for a large class of compound decision problems. In this tutorial we describe some basic principles of the empirical Bayes paradigm stressing their frequentist interpretation. Emphasis is placed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-05 Roger Koenker , Jiaying Gu

We address the problem of providing inference from a Bayesian perspective for parameters selected after viewing the data. We present a Bayesian framework for providing inference for selected parameters, based on the observation that…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-03-13 Daniel Yekutieli

A density estimation method in a Bayesian nonparametric framework is presented when recorded data are not coming directly from the distribution of interest, but from a length biased version. From a Bayesian perspective, efforts to…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-10-23 Spyridon J. Hatjispyros , Theodoros Nicoleris , Stephen G. Walker

Fuzzy data, prevalent in social sciences and other fields, capture uncertainties arising from subjective evaluations and measurement imprecision. Despite significant advancements in fuzzy statistics, a unified inferential regression-based…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Antonio Calcagnì , Przemysław Grzegorzewski , Maciej Romaniuk

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-11-02 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

Here we develop a method for performing nonparametric Bayesian inference on quantiles. Relying on geometric measure theory and employing a Hausdorff base measure, we are able to specify meaningful priors for the quantile while treating the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-05-12 Luke Bornn , Neil Shephard , Reza Solgi

High dimensional statistics deals with the challenge of extracting structured information from complex model settings. Compared with the growing number of frequentist methodologies, there are rather few theoretically optimal Bayes methods…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-08-21 Chao Gao , Aad W. van der Vaart , Harrison H. Zhou

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-04 Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-17 Leonardo Cella , Emily C. Hector

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

The increased availability of observation data from engineering systems in operation poses the question of how to incorporate this data into finite element models. To this end, we propose a novel statistical construction of the finite…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-25 Mark Girolami , Eky Febrianto , Ge Yin , Fehmi Cirak

We investigate the problem of compound estimation of normal means while accounting for the presence of side information. Leveraging the empirical Bayes framework, we develop a nonparametric integrative Tweedie (NIT) approach that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-17 Jiajun Luo , Trambak Banerjee , Gourab Mukherjee , Wenguang Sun

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the robot state belief using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-01-13 Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz , Steven A. Parkison , Ria Arora , James Richard Forbes , Liam Paull

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

Topic models are Bayesian models that are frequently used to capture the latent structure of certain corpora of documents or images. Each data element in such a corpus (for instance each item in a collection of scientific articles) is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-05 Behrooz Ghorbani , Hamid Javadi , Andrea Montanari

We consider the statistical linear inverse problem of making inference on an unknown source function in an elliptic partial differential equation from noisy observations of its solution. We employ nonparametric Bayesian procedures based on…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-07-26 Matteo Giordano

Inference in semi-supervised (SS) settings has gained substantial attention in recent years due to increased relevance in modern big-data problems. In a typical SS setting, there is a much larger-sized unlabeled data, containing only…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Gözde Sert , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Anirban Bhattacharya