相关论文: Sandpile Economics: Theory, Identification, and Ev…
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in…
This paper develops a Hall-Sandpile model of economic instability that combines a Hall-like transversal stress mechanism with sandpile threshold dynamics on a real production-network substrate. In analogy with the physical Hall effect,…
We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…
In this letter we present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split…
Supply chains are the backbone of the global economy. Disruptions to them can be costly. Centrally managed supply chains invest in ensuring their resilience. Decentralized supply chains, however, must rely upon the self-interest of their…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
The complexity of financial markets arise from the strategic interactions among agents trading stocks, which manifest in the form of vibrant correlation patterns among stock prices. Over the past few decades, complex financial markets have…
Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily…
The topology of production networks determines the propagation mechanisms of local shocks and thus the co-movement of industries. As a result, we need a more precisely defined production network to model economic growth accurately. In this…
Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…
An economy-wide production network, manifested through monetary input-output coefficients, inherently destabilizes during the general equilibrium propagation of sectoral productivity shocks when substitution elasticities are non-neutral.…
Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The…
We model the production of complex goods in a large supply network. Each firm sources several essential inputs through relationships with other firms. Individual supply relationships are at risk of idiosyncratic failure, which threatens to…
Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between…
We develop a model where firms determine the price at which they sell their differentiable goods, the volume that they produce, and the inputs (types and amounts) that they purchase from other firms. A steady-state production network…