相关论文: Allowing for imprecision in the game-theoretic cha…

The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian point of view for predicting real continuous-time processes. We give two equivalent definitions of a Bayesian predictor and study some properties: admissibility, prediction sufficiency, non-unbiasedness,…

Point processes are an essential tool when we are interested in where in time or space events occur. The basic starting point for point processes is usually the Poisson process. Over the years, Stein's method has been developed with a great…

The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A…

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) rely on the key assumption that probability distributions are precisely known. Robust POMDPs (RPOMDPs) alleviate this concern by defining imprecise probabilities, referred to as…

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a Poisson arrival process where the rate function is assumed to lie in the span of a known basis. Our goal is to estimate the basis expansions coefficients given a…

Statistical modeling of point patterns is an important and common problem in several areas. The Poisson process is the most common process used for this purpose, in particular, its generalization that considers the intensity function to be…

Poisson processes and one-dimensional Poisson point processes satisfy three main properties: superposition, thinning, and conditioning. The proof of the first two relies on basic estimates involving the Poisson distribution that are also…

We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define several notions of randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…

Poisson restart assumes that a stochastic process is interrupted and starts again at random time moments. A number of studies have demonstrated that this strategy may minimize the expected completion time in some classes of random search…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define a notion of computable randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…

In a prequential approach to algorithmic randomness, probabilities for the next outcome can be forecast `on the fly' without the need for fully specifying a probability measure on all possible sequences of outcomes, as is the case in the…

The English Premier League is well-known for being not only one of the most popular professional sports leagues in the world, but also one of the toughest competitions to predict. The first purpose of this research was to verify the…

We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…

Asymptotic behavior of the point process of high and medium values of a Gaussian stationary process with discrete time is considered. An approximation by a Poisson cluster point process is given for the point process.

Game-theoretic upper expectations are joint (global) probability models that mathematically describe the behaviour of uncertain processes in terms of supermartingales; capital processes corresponding to available betting strategies.…

Under mild assumptions the equivalence of the mixed Poisson process with mixing parameter a real-valued random variable to the one with mixing distribution as well as to the mixed Poisson process in the sense of Huang is obtained, and a…

The problem of parameter estimation by i.i.d. observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process is considered in situation of misspecification. The model is that of a Poissonian signal observed in presence of a homogeneous Poissonian noise.…

Using the game-theoretic framework for probability, Vovk and Shafer. have shown that it is always possible, using randomization, to make sequential probability forecasts that pass any countable set of well-behaved statistical tests. This…