相关论文: Ultra-Early Prediction of Tipping Points: Integrat…

In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…

Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to lead to drastic decreases in low…

Model-free and data-driven prediction of tipping point transitions in nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging and outstanding task in complex systems science. We propose a novel, fully data-driven machine learning algorithm based on…

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

The prediction of stochastic dynamical systems and the capture of dynamical behaviors are profound problems. In this article, we propose a data-driven framework combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow to study this issue, which…

We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow-fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and…

Nonlinear and non-stationary processes are prevalent in various natural and physical phenomena, where system dynamics can change qualitatively due to bifurcation phenomena. Traditional machine learning methods have advanced our ability to…

Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…

Tipping points are one of the hot topics in modern physics of complex systems. But what is a tipping point? A generic definition declares it as ``a state of the system where a small change in its parameters can lead to a significant change…

Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…

We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…

The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate-models. In this context, the…

To predict a critical transition due to parameter drift without relying on model is an outstanding problem in nonlinear dynamics and applied fields. A closely related problem is to predict whether the system is already in or if the system…

Reservoir Computing (RC) is a simple and efficient model-free framework for forecasting the behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems from data. Here, we show that there exist commonly-studied systems for which leading RC frameworks struggle…

Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…

In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…

Reservoir computing has been shown to be a useful framework for predicting critical transitions of a dynamical system if the bifurcation parameter is also provided as an input. Its utility is significant because in real-world scenarios, the…

Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…