相关论文: Bayes Risk for Goodness of Fit Tests

A classic inferential statistical problem is the goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. Such a test can be challenging when the hypothesized parametric model has an intractable likelihood and its distributional form is not available. Bayesian methods…

We identify the critical deviation scale governing Bayesian evidence accumulation in regular parametric testing. Under integrated Bayes risk with zero-one loss, the risk-optimal rejection boundary lies in a moderate deviation regime, with a…

Instead of defining goodness of fit (GOF) tests in terms of their test statistics, we present an alternative method by introducing the concept of local levels, which indicate high or low local sensitivity of a test. Local levels can act as…

Bayesian classification labels observations based on given prior information, namely class-a priori and class-conditional probabilities. Bayes' risk is the minimum expected classification cost that is achieved by the Bayes' test, the…

In population genetics and other application fields, models with intractable likelihood are common. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) or more generally Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) methods work by simulating instrumental data sets…

Motivated by many application problems, we consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a general loss function and unknown parameters. To mitigate the epistemic uncertainty associated with unknown parameters, we take a Bayesian approach…

Bayesian optimization based on the Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) offers a theoretical guarantee for optimizing black-box functions. In practice, however, black-box functions often involve input uncertainty. To handle such…

Goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests are fundamental for assessing model adequacy. Score-based tests are appealing because they require fitting the model only once under the null. However, extending them to powerful nonparametric alternatives is…

We construct Bayesian and frequentist finite-sample goodness-of-fit tests for three different variants of the stochastic blockmodel for network data. Since all of the stochastic blockmodel variants are log-linear in form when block…

We present the first method for assessing the relevance of a model-based clustering result in a general framework. Standard validation criteria, like the adjusted Rand index, rely on external labels to assess partition accuracy;…

Approximate Bayesian computation is a statistical framework that uses numerical simulations to calibrate and compare models. Instead of computing likelihood functions, Approximate Bayesian computation relies on numerical simulations, which…

We present a novel method for tuning the regularization hyper-parameter, $\lambda$, of a ridge regression that is faster to compute than leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) while yielding estimates of the regression parameters of equal,…

A consistent goodness-of-fit test for distributional regression is introduced. The test statistic is based on a process that traces the difference between a nonparametric and a semi-parametric estimate of the marginal distribution function…

We present a unified approach to goodness-of-fit testing in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and on lower-dimensional manifolds embedded in $\mathbb{R}^d$ based on sums of powers of weighted volumes of $k$-th nearest neighbor spheres. We prove asymptotic…

Optimization via simulation (OvS) procedures that assume the simulation inputs are generated from the real-world distributions are subject to the risk of selecting a suboptimal solution when the distributions are substituted with input…

This paper concerns the problem of applying the generalized goodness-of-fit (gGOF) type tests for analyzing correlated data. The gGOF family broadly covers the maximum-based testing procedures by ordered input $p$-values, such as the false…

Goodness-of-fit (GoF) testing is ubiquitous in statistics, with direct ties to model selection, confidence interval construction, conditional independence testing, and multiple testing, just to name a few applications. While testing the GoF…

Big Data has become an ever more commonplace setting that is encountered by data analysts. In the Big Data setting, analysts are faced with very large numbers of observations as well as data that arrive as a stream, both of which are…

Recently there have been many research efforts in developing generative models for self-exciting point processes, partly due to their broad applicability for real-world applications. However, rarely can we quantify how well the generative…

We consider the problem of goodness-of-fit testing for a model that has at least one unknown parameter that cannot be eliminated by transformation. Examples of such problems can be as simple as testing whether a sample consists of…