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Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3…

This paper revisits the discussion on determinants of budget balances and investigates the change in their effect in light of the COVID-19 crisis by utilizing data on 43 countries and a system generalized method of moments approach. The…

We quantify the Tariff Laffer Curve for the U.S. using a multi-sector Ricardian model calibrated to the 2025 US trade war. We find revenue-maximizing tariffs of 20--30 percent and welfare-maximizing rates of 0--10 percent. We define the…

The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach.…

This paper analyzes the intersection of presidential authority and cryptocurrency markets during Donald J. Trump's second term (2025-2029). We examine developments from 2024 through October 2025, focusing on how executive influence, family…

We study the effects of financial shocks on the United States economy by using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that exploits the non-normalities in the data. We use this method to uniquely identify the model and…

This letter revisits the informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market. In particular we analyze the time-varying behavior of long memory of returns on Bitcoin and volatility 2011 until 2017, using the Hurst exponent. Our results are…

By incorporating market impact and asymmetric sensitivity into the evolutionary minority game, we study the coevolutionary dynamics of stock prices and investment strategies in financial markets. Both the stock price movement and the…

Detailed study of multifractal characteristics of the financial time series of asset values and of its returns is performed using a collection of the high frequency Deutsche Aktienindex data. The tail index ($\alpha$), the Renyi exponents…

This paper investigates the assumption of homogeneous effects of federal tax changes across the U.S. states and identifies where and why that assumption may not be valid. More specifically, what determines the transmission mechanism of tax…

We present a comparative analysis of multifractal properties of financial time series built on stock indices from developing (WIG) and developed (S&P500) financial markets. It is shown how the multifractal image of the market is altered…

By incorporating market impact and momentum traders into an agent-based model, we investigate the conditions for the occurrence of self-reinforcing feedback loops and the coevolutionary mechanism of prices and strategies. For low market…

Multifractal analysis is a forecasting technique used to study the scaling regularity properties of financial returns, to analyze the long-term memory and predictability of financial markets. In this paper, we propose a novel structural…

We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally…

This paper investigates the impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) on stock-bond correlation dynamics in the United States. Using daily data on major U.S. stock indices and the 10-year Treasury bond from 2015 to 2025, we estimate…

The Efficient Market Hypothesis has been a staple of economics research for decades. In particular, weak-form market efficiency -- the notion that past prices cannot predict future performance -- is strongly supported by econometric…

The trade tension between the U.S. and China since 2018 has caused a steady decoupling of the world's two largest economies. The pandemic outbreak in 2020 complicated this process and had numerous unanticipated repercussions. This paper…

Since the onset of the the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries across the world have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of virus, as well as economic support policies (ESPs) to save their…

Grave human toll notwithstanding, the COVID-19 pandemic created uniquely unstable conditions in financial markets. In this work we uncover and discuss relationships involving sentiment in financial publications during the 2020…

This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag…