相关论文: Universal scaling between precursory duration and …

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, and ultimately an accelerating regime leading to catastrophic…

With the advent of seemingly unstructured big data, and through seamless integration of computation and physical components, cyber-physical systems (CPS) provide an innovative way to enhance safety and resiliency of transport…

Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained.…

Nearly all dense suspensions undergo dramatic and abrupt thickening transitions in their flow behaviour when sheared at high stresses. Such transitions occur when the dominant interactions between the suspended particles shift from…

Global scale impacts modify the physical or thermal state of a substantial fraction of a target asteroid. Specific effects include accretion, family formation, reshaping, mixing and layering, shock and frictional heating, fragmentation,…

Disordered viscoelastic materials are ubiquitous and exhibit fascinating invariant scaling properties. In a companion article, we have presented comprehensive new results for the critical behavior of the dynamic susceptibility of disordered…

We analyze the gravitational dynamics of a classical scalar field coupled to gravity in asymptotically AdS spacetime, which leads to black hole formation on the shortest nonlinear time scale for some initial conditions. We show that the…

Slope movements (e.g. landslides) are dynamic systems that are complex in time and space and closely linked to both inherited and current preparatory and triggering controls. It is not yet possible to assess in all cases conditions for…

he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…

In disordered elastic systems, driven by displacing a parabolic confining potential adiabatically slowly, all advance of the system is in bursts, termed avalanches. Avalanches have a finite extension in time, which is much smaller than the…

We investigate flow dynamics in rivers characterized by basin areas and daily mean discharge spanning different orders of magnitude. We show that the delayed increments evaluated at time scales ranging from days to months can be opportunely…

Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or…

The primary epoch of planetary accretion concludes with giant impacts - highly energetic collisions between proto-planets that can play a key role in shaping a planet's inventory of volatile elements. Previous work has shown that single…

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…

Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…

We present a detailed statistical analysis of acoustic emission time series from laboratory rock fracture obtained from different experiments on different materials including acoustic emission controlled triaxial fracture and punch-through…

We develop an analytic framework to understand fragmentation in turbulent, self-gravitating media. Previously, we showed some properties of turbulence can be predicted with the excursion-set formalism. Here, we generalize to fully…

We study precursors of failure in hierarchical random fuse network models which can be considered as idealizations of hierarchical (bio)materials where fibrous assemblies are held together by multi-level (hierarchical) cross-links. When…

Forecasting the imminent catastrophic failure has a high importance for a large variety of systems from the collapse of engineering constructions, through the emergence of landslides and earthquakes, to volcanic eruptions. Failure forecast…