相关论文: Universal scaling between precursory duration and …

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…

We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…

Recent experiments indicate that frictional sliding occurs by the nucleation of detachment fronts at the contact interface that may appear well before the onset of global sliding. This intriguing precursory activity is not accounted for by…

Continuum mechanics describes compressive failure as a standard bifurcation in the response of a material to an increasing load: damage, which initially grows uniformly in the material, localizes within a thin band at failure. Yet,…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

The interevent time distribution characterizes the temporal occurrence in seismic catalogs. Universal scaling properties of this distribution have been evidenced for entire catalogs and seismic sequences. Recently, these universal features…

Material failure is ubiquitous, with implications from geology to everyday life and material science. It often involves sudden, unpredictable events, with little or no macroscopically detectable precursors. A deeper understanding of the…

We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…

Anomalous diffusion phenomena occur on length scales spanning from intracellular to astrophysical ranges. A specific form of decay at large argument of the probability density function of rescaled displacement (scaling function) is derived…

In this work we review the precursors of catastrophic avalanches (global failures) in several failure models, namely (a) Fiber Bundle Model (FBM), (b) Random Fuse Model (RFM), (c) Sandpile Models and (d) Fractal Overlap Model. The precursor…

The dynamic properties of a classical tracer particle in a random, disordered medium are investigated close to the localization transition. For Lorentz models obeying Newtonian and diffusive motion at the microscale, we have performed…

Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…

Globally disruptive events include asteroid/comet impacts, large igneous provinces and glaciations, all of which have been considered as contributors to mass extinctions. Understanding the overall relationship between the timings of the…

Ground motion scenarios exists for most of the seismically active areas around the globe. They essentially correspond to shaking level maps at given earthquake return times which are used as reference for the likely areas under threat from…

The timeline of the Earth's history reveals quasi-periodicity of the geological record over the last 542 Myr, on timescales close, in the order of magnitude, to 1 Myr. What is the origin of this quasi-periodicity? What is the nature of the…

The presence of universality of avalanches characterizing the inelastic response of disordered materials has the potential to bridge the gap from micro- to macroscale. In this study, we explore the statistics and the scaling behavior of…

We formulate a scaling theory for the long-time diffusive motion in a space occluded by a high density of moving obstacles in dimensions 1, 2 and 3. Our tracers diffuse anomalously over many decades in time, before reaching a diffusive…

The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…

Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised…

Scale invariance is a central organizing principle in physics, underlying phenomena that range from critical behaviour in statistical mechanics to transport and chaos in nonlinear dynamical systems. Here we present a unified and physically…