相关论文: Universal scaling between precursory duration and …

Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major…

Catastrophic failures have momentous impact in many scientific and technological fields but remain challenging to understand and predict. One key difficulty lies in the burstiness of rupture phenomena, which typically involve a series of…

We investigate numerically and theoretically the precursory intermittent activity characterizing the preliminary phase of damage accumulation prior to failure of quasi-brittle solids. We use a minimal but thermodynamically consistent model…

We review here briefly the nature of precursors of global failures in three different kinds of many-body dynamical systems. First, we consider the lattice models of self-organised criticality in sandpiles and investigate numerically the…

Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

A precursory dynamics, motivated by the analysis of recent experiments on solid-on-solid friction, is introduced in a continuous cellular automaton that mimics the essential physical contents of earthquake source processes. The resulting…

Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…

We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…

A number of studies have investigated the large-scale drivers and upstream-precursors of extreme weather events, making it clear that the earliest warning signs of extreme events can be remote in both time and space from the impacted…

Scale-invariant avalanches -- with events of all sizes following power-law distributions -- are considered critical. Above the upper critical dimension of four, the mean-field solution with a robust $3/2$ size exponent describes the…

The hypothesis of critical failure relates the presence of an ultimate stability point in the structural constitutive equation of materials to a divergence of characteristic scales in the microscopic dynamics responsible for deformation.…

The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are…

Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quite universal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have been proposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we show that the…

The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…

We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…

The propagation of a crack front in disordered materials is jerky and characterized by bursts of activity, called avalanches. These phenomena are the manifestation of an out-of-equilibrium phase transition originated by the disorder. As a…

Understanding the interplay between concurrent length scales is a fundamental issue in many problems involving friction between sliding interfaces, from tribology to the study of earthquakes and seismic faults. On the one hand, a…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…