相关论文: Market Beliefs about Open vs. Closed AI

This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy surprises on U.S. Treasury bond yields and the implications for portfolio managers. Based on the supply and demand model, traditional economic theories suggest that Federal Reserve bond…

Would artificial intelligence (AI) cut interest rates or adopt conservative monetary policy? Would it deregulate or opt for a more controlled economy? As AI use by economic policymakers, academics, and market participants grows…

This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of…

Public finances are one of the fundamental mechanisms of economic governance that refer to the financial activities and decisions made by government entities to fund public services, projects, and operations through assets. In today's…

As AI adoption accelerates, research on its economic impacts becomes a salient source to consider for stakeholders of AI policy. Such research is however still in its infancy, and one in need of review. This paper aims to accomplish just…

Open-weight advanced AI models -- systems whose parameters are freely available for download and adaptation -- are reshaping the global AI landscape. As these models rapidly close the performance gap with closed alternatives, they enable…

While machine learning has revolutionized many fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision, its impact on time-series forecasting is still widely disputed, especially in the finance domain. This paper compares…

This paper quantifies the effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market. We estimate equity tail risk with option-implied stock market volatility that stems from large negative price jumps, and we assess its value in…

Privacy concerns significantly impact AI adoption, yet little is known about how information environments shape user responses to data leak threats. We conducted a 2 x 3 between-subjects experiment (N=610) examining how risk versus…

The development of artificial intelligence has made significant contributions to the financial sector. One of the main interests of investors is price predictions. Technical and fundamental analyses, as well as econometric analyses, are…

Regulatory frameworks, such as the EU AI Act, encourage openness of general-purpose AI models by offering legal exemptions for "open-source" models. Despite this legislative attention on openness, the definition of open-source foundation…

Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the labor market by changing the task content of occupations. This study investigates the impact of AI development on the emergence of new work, employment, and wages in the United States from 2015…

This study investigates the labor market consequences of AI by analyzing near real-time changes in employment status and work hours across occupations in relation to advances in AI capabilities. We construct a dynamic Occupational AI…

Successful deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in various settings has led to numerous positive outcomes for individuals and society. However, AI systems have also been shown to harm parts of the population due to biased predictions.…

Since its emergence around 2010, deep learning has rapidly become the most important technique in Artificial Intelligence (AI), producing an array of scientific firsts in areas as diverse as protein folding, drug discovery, integrated chip…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) will change human work by taking over specific job tasks, but there is a debate which tasks are susceptible to automation, and whether AI will augment or replace workers and affect wages. By combining data on…

Is artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting jobs and creating unemployment? Despite many attempts to quantify occupations' exposure to AI, inconsistent validation obfuscates the relative benefits of each approach. A lack of disaggregated…

The rapid proliferation of generative AI has raised questions about the competitiveness of lower-parameter, locally tunable, open-weight models relative to high-parameter, API-guarded, closed-weight models in terms of performance, domain…

This paper investigates the causal impact of negatively and positively toned ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussions on US students' anticipated labor market outcomes. Our findings reveal students reduce their confidence regarding…

We study how AI agents form expectations and trade in experimental asset markets. Using a simulated open-call auction populated by autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, we document three main findings. First, AI agents exhibit…