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Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-15 Xin Lu

This study analyses the current viability of this business based on a sample of European countries in the year 2019; countries where electricity prices (day-ahead market) and financial conditions show a certain degree of heterogeneity. We…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2023-09-26 Fernando Núñez , David Canca , Ángel Arcos-Vargas

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-13 Wishnu Badrawani

The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generative neural network model to generate probabilistic path…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Jieyu Chen , Sebastian Lerch , Melanie Schienle , Tomasz Serafin , Rafał Weron

Predicting a customer's propensity-to-pay at an early point in the revenue cycle can provide organisations many opportunities to improve the customer experience, reduce hardship and reduce the risk of impaired cash flow and occurrence of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-28 Md Abul Bashar , Astin-Walmsley Kieren , Heath Kerina , Richi Nayak

Forecasting electricity demand plays a critical role in ensuring reliable and cost-efficient operation of the electricity supply. With the global transition to distributed renewable energy sources and the electrification of heating and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-31 Konstantin Hopf , Hannah Hartstang , Thorsten Staake

This review presents the set of electricity price models proposed in the literature since the opening of power markets. We focus on price models applied to financial pricing and risk management. We classify these models according to their…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2021-07-30 Thomas Deschatre , Olivier Féron , Pierre Gruet

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-02-02 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-27 Simon Hirsch

In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-02-13 Joanna Janczura

Electricity price forecasting approaches generally fall into two categories: data-driven models, which learn from historical patterns, or fundamental models, which simulate market mechanisms. We propose a novel and highly efficient…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-01-27 Paul Ghelasi , Florian Ziel

This paper undertakes a comprehensive investigation of electricity price forecasting methods, focused on the Irish Integrated Single Electricity Market, particularly on changes during recent periods of high volatility. The primary objective…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-13 Ben Harkin , Xueqin Liu

This paper contributes to the literature on parametric demand estimation by using deep learning to model consumer preferences. Traditional econometric methods often struggle with limited within-product price variation, a challenge addressed…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-16 Kirill Safonov

We conduct the first rigorous study of electricity price volatility for the full panel of electricity prices across three European generation zones. By interpreting the observed day-ahead prices as local averages of a latent price process…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2026-05-14 Thomas K. Kloster , Fred Espen Benth

The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic consequences for operational and risk management prompting…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-08-27 Paul Ghelasi , Florian Ziel

This study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Large Language Model (LLM) with a Transformer architecture for stock price forecasting. The research addresses a critical theoretical gap in existing approaches…

In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-02 Shun Liu , Kexin Wu , Chufeng Jiang , Bin Huang , Danqing Ma

Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-01-13 Bartosz Uniejewski , Florian Ziel

In the global economy, credit companies play a central role in economic development, through their activity as money lenders. This important task comes with some drawbacks, mainly the risk of the debtors not being able to repay the provided…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-01 Giorgio Visani , Federico Chesani , Enrico Bagli , Davide Capuzzo , Alessandro Poluzzi

This research provides an in-depth evaluation of various machine learning models for energy forecasting, focusing on the unique challenges of seasonal variations in student residential settings. The study assesses the performance of…