相关论文: Coalescent Inference for Epidemics with Latent Per…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…
Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role.…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
Mathematical models in epidemiology are an indispensable tool to determine the dynamics and important characteristics of infectious diseases. Apart from their scientific merit, these models are often used to inform political decisions and…
The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that fast and accurate analysis of continually collected infectious disease surveillance data is crucial for situational awareness and policy making. Coalescent-based phylodynamic analysis can use genetic…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…
The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge,…
Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the…
A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations,…
In this work, we introduce a quantum-inspired epidemic model to study the dynamics of an infectious disease in a population divided into compartments. By treating the healthy population as a large reservoir, we construct a framework based…