相关论文: Regime Changes and Real-Financial Cycles: Searchin…

We analyze a three-dimensional Keen--Goodwin model that couples wage--employment dynamics with Minsky-style private debt. At zero real interest the interior equilibrium is nonhyperbolic and organized by a two-dimensional center manifold…

We solve an infinite time-horizon bounded-variation stochastic control problem with regime switching between $N$ states. This is motivated by the problem of a government that wants to control the country's debt-to-GDP (gross domestic…

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we…

Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…

Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…

The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income…

Do governments adjust budgetary policy to rising public debt, precluding fiscal unsustainability? Using budget data for 52 industrial and emerging economies since 1990, we apply panel methods accounting for cross-sectional dependence and…

Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider…

For nearly every major stock market there exist equity and implied volatility indices. These play important roles within finance: be it as a benchmark, a measure of general uncertainty or a way of investing or hedging. It is well known in…

We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections…

Based on the quarterly data from 26 advanced economies (AEs) and 18 emerging market economies (EMs) over the past two decades, this paper estimates the short- and medium-term impacts of financial cycles on the duration and amplitude of…

We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes…

As humanity is becoming increasingly confronted by Earth's finite biophysical limits, there is increasing interest in questions about the stability and equitability of a zero-growth capitalist economy, most notably: if one maintains a…

The emergence and decline of democratic systems worldwide raises fundamental questions about the dynamics of political change. Contrary to the idea of a stable endpoint of liberal democracy, recent backsliding towards less democratic…

Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise…

Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers, and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the stead-state. Here we build on a…

This study rigorously investigates the Keynesian cross model of a national economy with a focus on the dynamic relationship between government spending and economic equilibrium. The model consists of two ordinary differential equations…

We study the wealth distribution of UK households through a detailed analysis of data from wealth surveys and rich lists, and propose a non-linear Kesten process to model the dynamics of household wealth. The main features of our model are…

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…