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For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-04-19 Cheng Zhang , Babak Shahbaba , Hongkai Zhao

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers form an attractive alternative to MCMC for Bayesian computation. However, their performance depends strongly on the Markov kernels used to rejuvenate particles. We discuss how to calibrate automatically…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-02-13 Alexander Buchholz , Nicolas Chopin , Pierre E. Jacob

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-05 Hany Abdulsamad , Sahel Iqbal , Simo Särkkä

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-11-11 Nick Whiteley , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

By facilitating the generation of samples from arbitrary probability distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is, arguably, \emph{the} tool for the evaluation of Bayesian inference problems that yield non-standard posterior…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-05-27 Peter L Green , Robert E Moore , Ryan J Jackson , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

We address the challenge of training diffusion models to sample from unnormalized energy distributions in the absence of data, the so-called diffusion samplers. Although these approaches have shown promise, they struggle to scale in more…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-07 Minkyu Kim , Kiyoung Seong , Dongyeop Woo , Sungsoo Ahn , Minsu Kim

Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2022-05-12 Marylou Gabrié , Grant M. Rotskoff , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

With the recently increased interest in probabilistic models, the efficiency of an underlying sampler becomes a crucial consideration. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is one popular option for models of this kind. Performance of the method,…

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

Mechanistic models are essential tools across ecology, epidemiology, and the life sciences, but parameter inference remains challenging when likelihood functions are intractable. Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2025-11-27 Mario Castro

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…

数值分析 · 数学 2022-11-08 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raul Tempone

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-04-20 Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-07-10 Pierre Del Moral , Lawrence M. Murray

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

Recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have enabled the extraction of multiple features that depict patient samples at diverse and complementary molecular levels. The generation of such data has led to new challenges in…

基因组学 · 定量生物学 2022-09-14 Hakim Benkirane , Yoann Pradat , Stefan Michiels , Paul-Henry Cournède

In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-26 Alessandro Viani , Adam M Johansen , Alberto Sorrentino