相关论文: Beyond Traditional Surveillance: Harnessing Expert…

Infectious disease forecasts can reduce mortality and morbidity by supporting evidence-based public health decision making. Most epidemic models train on surveillance and structured data (e.g. weather, mobility, media), missing contextual…

Contemporary Epidemiological Surveillance (ES) relies heavily on data analytics. These analytics are critical input for pandemics preparedness networks; however, this input is not integrated into a form suitable for decision makers or…

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…

Forecasting the hospitalizations caused by the Influenza virus is vital for public health planning so that hospitals can be better prepared for an influx of patients. Many forecasting methods have been used in real-time during the Influenza…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

Accurate and representative data is vital for precisely reporting the impact of influenza in healthcare systems. Northern hemisphere winter 2022/23 experienced the most substantial influenza wave since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…

Spatio-temporal epidemic forecasting is critical for public health management, yet existing methods often struggle with insensitivity to weak epidemic signals, over-simplified spatial relations, and unstable parameter estimation. To address…

Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for informing public health decisions and timely interventions. While Physics-Informed Neural Networks have shown promise in various scientific domains, their potential application to real-time…

Objectives: The aim of this paper is to contrast the retrospective and prospective use of experts beliefs in choosing between survival models in economic evaluations. Methods: The use of experts retrospective (posterior) beliefs is…

Influenza is an infectious disease with the potential to become a pandemic, and hence, forecasting its prevalence is an important undertaking for planning an effective response. Research has found that web search activity can be used to…

Seasonal influenza infects between 10 and 50 million people in the United States every year, overburdening hospitals during weeks of peak incidence. Named by the CDC as an important tool to fight the damaging effects of these epidemics,…

Complex decision-making systems rarely have direct access to the current state of the world and they instead rely on opinions to form an understanding of what the ground truth could be. Even in problems where experts provide opinions…

In this article, we take a step back to distill seven principles out of our experience in the spring of 2020, when our 12-person rapid-response team used skills of data science and beyond to help distribute Covid PPE. This process included…

The problem of aggregating expert forecasts is ubiquitous in fields as wide-ranging as machine learning, economics, climate science, and national security. Despite this, our theoretical understanding of this question is fairly shallow. This…

Future Event Prediction (FEP) is an essential activity whose demand and application range across multiple domains. While traditional methods like simulations, predictive and time-series forecasting have demonstrated promising outcomes,…

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election unfolded within an information environment of unprecedented volatility, challenging citizens to navigate a torrent of rapidly evolving, often contradictory information while determining what to believe.…