相关论文: Baseline hydropower generation offer curves
In this paper a general second order semi-Markov reward model is presented. Equations for the higher order moments of the reward process are presented for the first time and applied to wind energy production. The application is executed by…
Accurate price predictions are essential for market participants in order to optimize their operational schedules and bidding strategies, especially in the current context where electricity prices become more volatile and less predictable…
Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid. This study…
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…
We introduce a new approach to quantize the Euler scheme of an $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued diffusion process. This method is based on a Markovian and componentwise product quantization and allows us, from a numerical point of view, to speak of…
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key…
Wildfires pose an increasing threat to the safety and reliability of power systems, particularly in distribution networks located in fire-prone regions. To mitigate ignition risk from electrical infrastructure, utilities often employ safety…
A simple model of the new notion of "Markov up" processes is proposed; its positive recurrence and ergodic properties are shown under the appropriate conditions.
We consider some crucial problems related to the secure and reliable operation of power systems with high renewable penetrations: how much reserve should we procure, how should reserve resources distribute among different locations, and how…
Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…
Information-theoretic principles for learning and acting have been proposed to solve particular classes of Markov Decision Problems. Mathematically, such approaches are governed by a variational free energy principle and allow solving MDP…
The integration of renewables into electrical grids calls for optimization-based control schemes requiring reliable grid models. Classically, parameter estimation and optimization-based control is often decoupled, which leads to high system…
The transition to renewable energy systems causes increased decentralization of the energy supply. Solar parks are built to increase renewable energy penetration and to supply local communities that become increasingly self-sufficient.…
We formulate a method to co-optimize power system capacity planning decisions and policy investments that shape electricity load patterns. To this end, we leverage a gradient-based solution technique that enables the efficient solution of…
The Riemann surface associated with counting the current between two states of an underlying Markov process is hyperelliptic. We explore the consequences of this property for the time-dependent probability of that current for Markov…
The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such…
We propose and investigate two model classes for forward power price dynamics, based on continuous branching processes with immigration, and on Hawkes processes with exponential kernel, respectively. The models proposed exhibit jumps…
Understanding the generative mechanism of a natural system is a vital component of the scientific method. Here, we investigate one of the fundamental steps toward this goal by presenting the minimal generator of an arbitrary binary Markov…
This paper presents pricing and hedging methods for rainbow options and lookback options under Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS--VAR) process. Here we assumed that a regime-switching process is generated by a homogeneous…