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Unlike other techniques of causality inference, the use of valid instrumental variables can deal with unobserved sources of both variable errors, variable omissions, and sampling bias, and still arrive at consistent estimates of average…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-02-17 Øyvind Hoveid

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Instrumental variables (IVs) are crucial for addressing unobservable confounders, yet their stringent exogeneity assumptions pose significant challenges in networked data. Existing methods typically rely on modelling neighbour information…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Zhirong Huang , Debo Cheng , Guixian Zhang , Yi Wang , Jiuyong Li , Shichao Zhang

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses are becoming common in health services research and epidemiology. Most IV analyses use naturally occurring instruments, such as distance to a hospital. In these analyses, investigators must assume the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-04 Zach Branson , Luke Keele

Scientific and business practices are increasingly resulting in large collections of randomized experiments. Analyzed together, these collections can tell us things that individual experiments in the collection cannot. We study how to learn…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-06-02 Alexander Peysakhovich , Dean Eckles

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-28 Qian Li , Zhichao Wang , Shaowu Liu , Gang Li , Guandong Xu

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-22 Gregor Steiner , Jeremie Houssineau , Mark F. J. Steel

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to adjust for the bias in estimating treatment effects caused by unmeasured confounders in observational studies. In this manuscript, we provide empirical and theoretical evidence that the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-04 Ashkan Ertefaie , Dylan Small , James H. Flory , Sean Hennessy

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

This paper establishes the functional average as an important estimand for causal inference. The significance of the estimand lies in its robustness against traditional issues of confounding. We prove that this robustness holds even when…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-12-04 Shane Sparkes , Erika Garcia , Lu Zhang

Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-04 Ziyu Wang , Yuhao Zhou , Tongzheng Ren , Jun Zhu

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-22 Yingrong Wang , Haoxuan Li , Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Instrumental variables are a popular tool to infer causal effects under unobserved confounding, but choosing suitable instruments is challenging in practice. We propose gIVBMA, a Bayesian model averaging procedure that addresses this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-02 Gregor Steiner , Mark Steel

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

Instrumental variables have been widely used for estimating the causal effect between exposure and outcome. Conventional estimation methods require complete knowledge about all the instruments' validity; a valid instrument must not have a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-09-23 Hyunseung Kang , Anru Zhang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

Explainability for machine learning models has gained considerable attention within the research community given the importance of deploying more reliable machine-learning systems. In computer vision applications, generative counterfactual…

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on…

The recent availability of huge, many-dimensional data sets, like those arising from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provides many opportunities for strengthening causal inference. One popular approach is to utilize these…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-12-21 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes