相关论文: The Zeta Tail Distribution: A Novel Event-Count Mo…
In the present paper we demonstrate the results of a statistical analysis of some characteristics of precipitation events and propose a kind of a theoretical explanation of the proposed models in terms of mixed Poisson and mixed exponential…
Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but…
Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…
We present a nonparametric family of estimators for the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution when covariate information is available. Our estimators are based on a weighted sum of the log-spacings between some selected observations.…
We introduce Joint Probability Trees (JPT), a novel approach that makes learning of and reasoning about joint probability distributions tractable for practical applications. JPTs support both symbolic and subsymbolic variables in a single…
Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…
The so-called partition function is a sample moment statistic based on blocks of data and it is often used in the context of multifractal processes. It will be shown that its behaviour is strongly influenced by the tail of the distribution…
It is the purpose of this paper to investigate the issue of estimating the regularity index $\beta>0$ of a discrete heavy-tailed r.v. $S$, \textit{i.e.} a r.v. $S$ valued in $\mathbb{N}^*$ such that $\mathbb{P}(S>n)=L(n)\cdot n^{-\beta}$…
An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this…
This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…
We extend the class of tempered stable distributions first introduced in Rosinski 2007. Our new class allows for more structure and more variety of tail behaviors. We discuss various subclasses and the relation between them. To characterize…
We present a new temporal logic called Distribution Temporal Logic (DTL) defined over predicates of belief states and hidden states of partially observable systems. DTL can express properties involving uncertainty and likelihood that cannot…
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution…
Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…
Several distributions and families of distributions are proposed to model skewed data, think, e.g., of skew-normal and related distributions. Lambert W random variables offer an alternative approach where, instead of constructing a new…
In this paper, we define a kernel estimator for the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution under random right-truncation and establish its asymptotic normality. A simulation study shows that, compared to the estimators recently proposed…
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…
Power laws and distributions with heavy tails are common features of many experimentally studied complex systems, like the distribution of the sizes of earthquakes and solar flares, or the duration of neuronal avalanches in the brain.…
We consider the fitting of heavy tailed data and distribution with a special attention to distributions with a non--standard shape in the "body" of the distribution. To this end we consider a dense class of heavy tailed distributions…
Rare events play a crucial role in understanding complex systems. Characterizing and analyzing them in scale-invariant situations is challenging due to strong correlations. In this work, we focus on characterizing the tails of probability…