相关论文: The Bones and Shapes of the Phillips Curve
The empirical literature that covers Phillips Curve analysis during recessionary periods is notably scant. The Great Recession has rekindled a debate on the validity and stability of the Phillips Curve which is still ongoing. The basis for…
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…
The conventional linear Phillips curve model, while widely used in policymaking, often struggles to deliver accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities. This paper addresses these limitations by…
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this…
Reliable estimates of volatility and correlation are fundamental in economics and finance for understanding the impact of macroeconomics events on the market and guiding future investments and policies. Dependence across financial returns…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models…
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since.…
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest…
Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and…
We decompose the U.S. consumption inequality distributional changes during the COVID-19 phase. Analyzing the Consumption Expenditure Interview Survey data, we decompose observed changes in consumption inequality into components attributable…
This paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets. It focuses on the evolution of the market efficiency, using two efficiency indicators: the Hurst exponent and the memory parameter of a fractional L\'evy-stable motion.…
This paper proposes a new, Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveridgean Phillips curve is based on directed-search pricing…
Dealing with structural breaks is an important step in most, if not all, empirical economic research. This is particularly true in panel data comprised of many cross-sectional units, such as individuals, firms or countries, which are all…
Recently, a stock price model is proposed by A. Mahata et al. [Physica A, 574, 126008 (2021)] to understand the effect of COVID-19 on stock market. It describes V- and L-shaped recovery of the stocks and indices, but fails to simulate the…
In this paper, a mathematical model based on the one-parameter Mittag-Leffler function is proposed to be used for the first time to describe the relation between unemployment rate and inflation rate, also known as the Phillips curve. The…
On the basis of a compartment model, the epidemic curve is investigated when the net rate $\lambda$ of change of the number of infected individuals $I$ is given by an ellipse in the $\lambda$-$I$ plane which is supported in $[I_{\ell},…
Diverse non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), serving as the primary approach for COVID-19 control prior to pharmaceutical interventions, showed heterogeneous spatiotemporal effects on pandemic management. Investigating the dynamic…