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Heavy-tailed fluctuations and power law distributions pervade physics, biology, and the social sciences, with numerous mechanisms proposed for their emergence. Kesten processes, which are multiplicative stochastic recursions with additive…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2026-02-18 Virgile Troude , Didier Sornette

Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-21 Lucia Asencio-Martín , Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

In this work, we propose a non-iterative Gaussian transformation strategy based on copula function, which doesn't require some commonly seen restrictive assumptions in the previous studies such as the elliptically symmetric distribution…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-29 Rongxiang Rui , Maozai Tian

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a probabilistic nonparametric representation of functions in regression, classification, and other problems. Unfortunately, exact learning with GPs is intractable for large datasets. A variety of approximate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2010-02-23 Yuan Qi , Ahmed H. Abdel-Gawad , Thomas P. Minka

In numerous instances, the generalized exponential distribution can be used as an alternative to the most widely used non-regular family of distributions: Weibull, gamma, lognormal with three-parameters when analyzing lifetime or any skewed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Kiran Prajapat , Sharmishtha Mitra , Debasis Kundu

Since its introduction, the skew-$t$ distribution has received much attention in the literature both for the study of theoretical properties and as a model for data fitting in empirical work. A major motivation for this interest is the high…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-07-25 Adelchi Azzalini , Mahdi Salehi

We propose a family of four-parameter distributions that contain the K-distribution as special case. The family is derived as a mixture distribution that uses the three-parameter reflected Gamma distribution as parental and the…

Peak counts have been shown to be an excellent tool to extract the non-Gaussian part of the weak lensing signal. Recently, we developped a fast stochastic forward model to predict weak-lensing peak counts. Our model is able to reconstruct…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2015-11-16 Chieh-An Lin , Martin Kilbinger

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-06-24 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Zoubin Ghahramani

Although Zipf's law is widespread in natural and social data, one often encounters situations where one or both ends of the ranked data deviate from the power-law function. Previously we proposed the Beta rank function to improve the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2017-05-03 Oscar Fontanelli , Pedro Miramontes , Yaning Yang , Germinal Cocho , Wentian Li

We investigate the physical property of the kappa parameter and the kappa-distribution in the kappa-deformed statistics, based on Kaniadakis entropy, for a relativistic gas in an electromagnetic field. We derive two relations for the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-05-13 Guo Lina , Du Jiulin , Liu Zhipeng

The velocity distributions of stellar tracers in general exhibit weak non-Gaussianity encoding information on the orbital composition of a galaxy and the underlying potential. The standard solution for measuring non-Gaussianity involves…

星系天体物理 · 物理学 2020-10-28 Jason L. Sanders , N. Wyn Evans

A stochastic model for a superposition of uncorrelated pulses with a random distribution of amplitudes, sizes, and velocities is analyzed. The pulses are assumed to move radially with fixed shape and amplitudes decreasing exponentially in…

等离子体物理 · 物理学 2024-01-11 J. M. Losada , O. Paikina , O. E. Garcia

Deep Gaussian processes provide a flexible approach to probabilistic modelling of data using either supervised or unsupervised learning. For tractable inference approximations to the marginal likelihood of the model must be made. The…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-12-04 James Hensman , Neil D. Lawrence

Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-07-08 Till Massing

We compute profile likelihoods for a stochastic model of diffusive transport motivated by experimental observations of heat conduction in layered skin tissues. This process is modelled as a random walk in a layered one-dimensional material,…

Skew-elliptical distributions constitute a large class of multivariate distributions that account for both skewness and a variety of tail properties. This class has simpler representations in terms of densities rather than cumulative…

概率论 · 数学 2019-01-21 Harry Joe , Haijun Li

A key challenge in the practical application of Gaussian processes (GPs) is selecting a proper covariance function. The moving average, or process convolutions, construction of GPs allows some additional flexibility, but still requires…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-19 Thomas M. McDonald , Magnus Ross , Michael T. Smith , Mauricio A. Álvarez

A method to perform unfolding with Gaussian processes (GPs) is presented. Using Bayesian regression, we define an estimator for the underlying truth distribution as the mode of the posterior. We show that in the case where the bin contents…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2018-11-07 Adam Bozson , Glen Cowan , Francesco Spanò

We propose stochastic, non-parametric activation functions that are fully learnable and individual to each neuron. Complexity and the risk of overfitting are controlled by placing a Gaussian process prior over these functions. The result is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-12-01 Sebastian Urban , Marcus Basalla , Patrick van der Smagt