相关论文: Bayesian sequential analysis of adverse events wit…

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to conduct the most informative experiment under budget constraints to update the prior knowledge of a system to its posterior from the experimental data in a Bayesian framework. Such…

The null hypothesis test (NHT) is widely used for validating scientific hypotheses but is actually highly criticized. Although Bayesian tests overcome several criticisms, some limits remain. We propose a Bayesian two-interval test (2IT) in…

For in vivo research experiments with small sample sizes and available historical data, we propose a sequential Bayesian method for the Behrens-Fisher problem. We consider it as a model choice question with two models in competition: one…

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor from prior to posterior odds, is a principled measure of relative evidence for two competing hypotheses. It is naturally suited to sequential data analysis in settings such as clinical trials…

Extrapolating treatment effects from related studies is a promising strategy for designing and analyzing clinical trials in situations where achieving an adequate sample size is challenging. Bayesian methods are well-suited for this…

Often in sequential trials additional data become available after a stopping boundary has been reached. A method of incorporating such information from overrunning is developed, based on the ``adding weighted Zs'' method of combining…

Suppose we observe a Poisson process in real time for which the intensity may take on two possible values $\lambda_0$ and $\lambda_1$. Suppose further that the priori probability of the true intensity is not given. We solve a minimax…

We propose an adaptive sequential framework for testing two simple hypotheses that analytically ensures finite exposure to the less effective treatment. Our proposed procedure employs a likelihood ratio-driven adaptive allocation rule,…

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Nevertheless, in studies that are aimed at examining adverse effects of interventions, such trials are often impractical because of ethical and…

Recently, the binary expansion testing framework was introduced to test the independence of two continuous random variables by utilizing symmetry statistics that are complete sufficient statistics for dependence. We develop a new test based…

We show that it can be suboptimal for Bayesian decision-making agents employing social learning to use correct prior probabilities as their initial beliefs. We consider sequential Bayesian binary hypothesis testing where each individual…

We consider the problem of sequential binary hypothesis testing with a distributed sensor network in a non-Gaussian noise environment. To this end, we present a general formulation of the Consensus + Innovations Sequential Probability Ratio…

Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments against a common control group (and/or against each other), which often reduces the trial duration and sample size. Bayesian platform designs offer several practical advantages,…

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

We analyze boundedly rational updating from aggregate statistics in a model with binary actions and binary states. Agents each take an irreversible action in sequence after observing the unordered set of previous actions. Each agent first…

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

Gathering labeled data to train well-performing machine learning models is one of the critical challenges in many applications. Active learning aims at reducing the labeling costs by an efficient and effective allocation of costly labeling…