相关论文: Sampling with time-changed Markov processes

The generalized Langevin equation is used as a model for various coarse-grained physical processes, e.g., the time evolution of the velocity of a given larger particle in an implicitly represented solvent, when the relevant time scales of…

Probabilistic models are conceptually powerful tools for finding structure in data, but their practical effectiveness is often limited by our ability to perform inference in them. Exact inference is frequently intractable, so approximate…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

The computer revolution has been driven by a sustained increase of computational speed of approximately one order of magnitude (a factor of ten) every five years since about 1950. In natural sciences this has led to a continuous increase of…

We study ergodic properties of a class of Markov-modulated general birth-death processes under fast regime switching. The first set of results concerns the ergodic properties of the properly scaled joint Markov process with a parameter that…

Standard MCMC methods can scale poorly to big data settings due to the need to evaluate the likelihood at each iteration. There have been a number of approximate MCMC algorithms that use sub-sampling ideas to reduce this computational…

A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…

Consider a Markov chain defined on a finite state space, X, that leaves invariant the uniform distribution on X, and whose transition probabilities are integer multiples of 1/Q, for some integer Q. I show how a simulation of n transitions…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) is a popular approach to sample from high dimensional distributions, and the asymptotic variance is a commonly used criterion to evaluate the performance. While most popular MCMC algorithms are reversible,…

Monte Carlo algorithms simulate some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the…

Among random sampling methods, Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are foremost. Using a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we study their convergence properties towards the steady state, within a random walk Metropolis…

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Recent research has highlighted limitations of studying complex systems with time-varying topologies from the perspective of static, time-aggregated networks. Non-Markovian characteristics resulting from the ordering of interactions in…

The paper presents new asymptotic recurrent algorithms of phase space reduction for regularly and singularly perturbed semi-Markov processes. These algorithms give effective conditions of weak convergence for distributions and convergence…

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

We consider stochastic optimization problems where data is drawn from a Markov chain. Existing methods for this setting crucially rely on knowing the mixing time of the chain, which in real-world applications is usually unknown. We propose…

An important problem in the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is to determine the convergence time, or the number of iterations before the chain is close to stationarity. For many Markov chains used in practice this time…

State-space models are commonly used to describe different forms of ecological data. We consider the case of count data with observation errors. For such data the system process is typically multi-dimensional consisting of coupled Markov…

We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…