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This article proposes doubly robust estimators for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-differences (DID) research designs. In contrast to alternative DID estimators, the proposed estimators are consistent if…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-05-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Jun B. Zhao

Externally controlled trials (ECTs) are increasingly used when randomized controls are infeasible, unethical, or insufficient, including applications in rare diseases, oncology, pediatrics, and post-approval effectiveness research. Although…

The ability to accurately estimate the sample size required by a stepped-wedge (SW) cluster randomized trial (CRT) routinely depends upon the specification of several nuisance parameters. If these parameters are mis-specified, the trial…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-10 Michael Grayling , Adrian Mander , James Wason

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Ashwin Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-13 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Emil Javurek , Konstantin Hess , Yuchen Ma , Stefan Feuerriegel

Pretraining on large-scale datasets has been shown to improve transformer generalizability, even for out-of-domain (OOD) modalities and tasks. However, two common assumptions often fail under OOD transfer: that downstream datasets can be…

Randomized controlled trials (RCT's) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-08 Melody Huang

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

Recent research in causal inference under network interference has explored various experimental designs and estimation techniques to address this issue. However, existing methods, which typically rely on single experiments, often reach a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-10 Qianyi Chen , Bo Li

This paper proposes an adaptive randomization procedure for two-stage randomized controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-07-06 Max Tabord-Meehan

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Fangnan Zheng , Yao Zhang

Augmenting the control arm in clinical trials with external data can improve statistical power for demonstrating treatment effects. In many time-to-event outcome trials, participants are subject to truncation by death. Direct application of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

The use of propensity score (PS) methods has become ubiquitous in causal inference. At the heart of these methods is the positivity assumption. Violation of the positivity assumption leads to the presence of extreme PS weights when…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-21 Yi Liu , Huiyue Li , Yunji Zhou , Roland Matsouaka

In clinical trials, an experimental treatment is sometimes added on to a standard of care or control therapy in multiple treatment phases (e.g., concomitant and maintenance phases) to improve patient outcomes. When the new regimen provides…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-19 Sudipta Bhattacharya , Jyotirmoy Dey

When randomized controlled trials are impractical or unethical to simultaneously compare multiple treatments, indirect treatment comparisons using single-arm trials offer valuable evidence for health technology assessments, especially for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Yuru Zhu , Huiyuan Wang , Haitao Chu , Yumou Qiu , Yong Chen

In oncology the efficacy of novel therapeutics often differs across patient subgroups, and these variations are difficult to predict during the initial phases of the drug development process. The relation between the power of randomized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Boyu Ren , Federico Ferrari , Sandra Fortini , Steffen Ventz , Lorenzo Trippa

In cluster randomized trials, patients are typically recruited after clusters are randomized, and the recruiters and patients may not be blinded to the assignment. This often leads to differential recruitment and consequently systematic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-05 Fan Li , Zizhong Tian , Jennifer Bobb , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Fan Li

Patient-centered outcomes, such as quality of life and length of hospital stay, are the focus in a wide array of clinical studies. However, participants in randomized trials for elderly or critically and severely ill patient populations may…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-17 Dane Isenberg , Michael Harhay , Nandita Mitra , Fan Li

When direct measurement of a clinically relevant primary endpoint in a clinical trial is infeasible, a surrogate endpoint may be used instead to infer treatment effects. Trial-level surrogates predict the average treatment effect on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Arthur Hughes , Rodolphe Thiébaut , Layla Parast , Boris P. Hejblum

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are commonly identified during randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Identifying subgroups of patients with similar treatment effects is of high interest in clinical research to advance precision…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-06 Peniel N. Argaw , Elizabeth Healey , Isaac S. Kohane