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We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-21 Xing Yan , Yonghua Su , Wenxuan Ma

In this article, we present the maximum weighted likelihood estimator (MWLE) for robust estimations of heavy-tail finite mixture models (FMM). This is motivated by the complex distributional phenomena of insurance claim severity data, where…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-04 Tsz Chai Fung

This paper proposes a Sieve Simulated Method of Moments (Sieve-SMM) estimator for the parameters and the distribution of the shocks in nonlinear dynamic models where the likelihood and the moments are not tractable. An important concern…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-01-19 Jean-Jacques Forneron

Extreme multi-label classification (XMC) is the problem of finding the relevant labels for an input, from a very large universe of possible labels. We consider XMC in the setting where labels are available only for groups of samples - but…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-04-02 Yanyao Shen , Hsiang-fu Yu , Sujay Sanghavi , Inderjit Dhillon

In this paper we consider the estimation problem for high quantiles of a heavy-tailed distribution from block data when only a few largest values are observed within blocks. We propose estimators for high quantiles and prove that these…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-06-27 Yongcheng Qi , Mengzi Xie , Jingping Yang

Latent factor models that integrate data from multiple sources/studies or modalities have garnered considerable attention across various disciplines. However, existing methods predominantly focus either on multi-study integration or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-15 Wei Liu , Qingzhi Zhong

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-17 Jacinto Martín , M. Isabel Parra , Eva L. Sanjuán , Mario M. Pizarro

We consider component-wise equivariant estimation of order restricted location/scale parameters of a general bivariate distribution under quite general conditions on underlying distributions and the loss function. This paper unifies various…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-07-05 Naresh Garg , Neeraj Misra

Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Estimation of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) with non-nested random effects structures requires approximation of high-dimensional integrals. Many existing methods are tailored to the low-dimensional integrals produced by nested…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-04-01 Andrew T. Karl , Yan Yang , Sharon L. Lohr

Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-23 Nicola Gnecco , Edossa Merga Terefe , Sebastian Engelke

Usual estimation methods for the parameters of extreme values distribution employ only a few values, wasting a lot of information. More precisely, in the case of the Gumbel distribution, only the block maxima values are used. In this work,…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2019-02-22 Rubén Gómez González , M. Isabel Parra , Francisco Javier Acero , Jacinto Martín

A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time…

地球物理 · 物理学 2009-11-11 Mara Felici , Valerio Lucarini , Antonio Speranza , Renato Vitolo

Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-02-20 Benjamin Marlin , Nando de Freitas

Reduced-rank regression is a dimensionality reduction method with many applications. The asymptotic theory for reduced rank estimators of parameter matrices in multivariate linear models has been studied extensively. In contrast, few…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-10-13 Efstathia Bura , Sabrina Duarte , Liliana Forzani , Ezequiel Smucler , Mariela Sued

The main results of the extreme value theory developed for the investigation of the observables of dynamical systems rely, up to now, on the Gnedenko approach. In this framework, extremes are basically identified with the block maxima of…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-05-30 Valerio Lucarini , Davide Faranda , Jeroen Wouters

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful computational technique for finding the maximum likelihood estimates for parametric models when the data are not fully observed. The EM is best suited for situations where the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-05-14 Chanseok Park

Generalizing the concept of quantiles to the jump measure of a L\'evy process, the generalized quantiles $q_{\tau}^{\pm}>0$, for $\tau>0$, are given by the smallest values such that a jump larger than $q_{\tau}^{+}$ or a negative jump…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-06-19 Mathias Trabs

This paper introduces a novel kernel density estimator (KDE) based on the generalised exponential (GE) distribution, designed specifically for positive continuous data. The proposed GE KDE offers a mathematically tractable form that avoids…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-18 Laura M. Craig , Wagner Barreto-Souza