相关论文: Disease Outbreak Detection and Forecasting: A Revi…

The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…

Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…

Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…

A rumor spreading in a social network or a disease propagating in a community can be modeled as an infection spreading in a network. Finding the infection source is a challenging problem, which is made more difficult in many applications…

We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that threatens more than half of the world's population. Despite being endemic to over 100 countries, government-led efforts and mechanisms to timely identify and track the emergence of new infections are…

Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…

Detecting the origin of information or infection spread in networks is a fundamental challenge with applications in misinformation tracking, epidemiology, and beyond. We study the multi-source detection problem: given snapshot observations…

Background: Travel is a potent force in the emergence of disease. We discussed how the traveler case reports could aid in a timely detection of a disease outbreak. Methods: Using the traveler data, we estimated a few indicators of the…

In this paper, we consider epidemiological networks which are used for modeling the transmission of contagious diseases through a population. Specifically, we study the so-called social sensors problem: given an epidemiological network, can…

Public health interventions are a fundamental tool for mitigating the spread of an infectious disease. However, it is not always possible to obtain a conclusive estimate for the impact of an intervention, especially in situations where the…

Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent…

It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…

Infectious diseases have severe health and economic consequences for society. It is important in controlling the spread of an emerging infectious disease to be able to both estimate the parameters of the underlying model and identify those…

The exploration of epidemic dynamics on dynamically evolving ("adaptive") networks poses nontrivial challenges to the modeler, such as the determination of a small number of informative statistics of the detailed network state (that is, a…

We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who recovered from the disease as quickly as…

As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…

Traditional biomedical approaches treat diseases in isolation, but the importance of synergistic disease interactions is now recognized. As a first step we present and analyze a simple coinfection model for two diseases affecting…

The statistics of outbreaks in a model for the propagation of meningococcal diseases is analyzed, taking into account the possibility that the population is fragmented into weakly connected patches. It is shown that, depending on the size…