相关论文: A GARCH model with two volatility components and t…

We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…

This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility…

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…

This paper presents a novel dynamic network autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on spatiotemporal ARCH models to forecast volatility in the US stock market. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the model…

Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…

This study examines the performance of a volatility-based strategy using Chinese equity index ETF options. Initially successful, the strategy's effectiveness waned post-2018. By integrating GARCH models for volatility forecasting, the…

This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…

GARCH models are useful tools in the investigation of phenomena, where volatility changes are prominent features, like most financial data. The parameter estimation via quasi maximum likelihood (QMLE) and its properties are by now well…

The multidimensional Uncertain Volatility Model leads to robust option pricing problems under joint volatility and correlation uncertainty. Their numerical resolution quickly becomes challenging because the associated stochastic control…

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…

In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study…

Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…

We introduce generalizations of the COGARCH model of Kl\"uppelberg et al. from 2004 and the volatility and price model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard from 2001 to a Markov-switching environment. These generalizations allow for exogeneous…

This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…

This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…

This research addresses accurate option pricing by employing models beyond the traditional Black-Scholes framework. While Black-Scholes provides a closed-form solution, it is limited by assumptions of constant volatility, no dividends, and…

Building on a prominent agent-based model, we present a new structural stochastic volatility asset pricing model of fundamentalists vs. chartists where the prices are determined based on excess demand. Specifically, this allows for…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…

In this paper, an application of three GARCH-type models (sGARCH, iGARCH, and tGARCH) with Student t-distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED), and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution are examined. The new development allows…